Several state polls released this afternoon show the Biden campaign doing fairly well in a number of key states.
Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 50% to 45% lead in Florida among likely voters under a high turnout scenario. With a lower turnout, Biden’s lead shrinks to 49% to 46%. Monmouth is rated as an A+ pollster by 538. Only 3% of voters are undecided.
“Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The Monmouth Poll showed voters over 65 closely divided with Trump having a 49% to 47% edge, mostly because of older Cuban-American voters. Trump’s support among military voters and their families is very low for an incumbent Republican president. He leads by only 50% to 46%.
Biden’s chances and the entire Democratic ticket should be helped by the $100 million that Michael Bloomberg has said he intends to spend in the state to help Biden.
Other polls of late have shown Florida to be tied or nearly so, and Cook Political Ratings moved Florida from “Lean Democrat” to “Tossup” on September 10. One poll by Florida Atlantic University also released today shows 50% for Biden and 50% for Trump.
Website 538 gives a current polling average for Florida of 48.6% for Biden and 46.2% for Trump.
The CNN/SSRS poll shows Biden ahead 52% to 42 among likely Wisconsin voters, and ahead 49% to 46% in North Carolina. CNN/SSRS is rated as a B/C pollster by 538. Biden is doing better in the Milwaukee suburbs than Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Biden trails Trump in a group of seven suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee, a group that includes Kenosha; still, he is behind by a far smaller margin than Hillary Clinton's 20-point loss there in 2016 (42% in those counties back Biden, 53% Trump, compared with a 57%-Trump-to-37%-Clinton margin in 2016).In North Carolina, Trump holds an advantage among White likely voters (58% to 38%) while more than nine in 10 Black voters back Biden (93% to 3% for Trump). Women favor Biden (55% to 42% for Trump) while men break for Trump (51% to 42%). Biden's edge among women in the state comes from women of color. White women favor Trump, 55% to 42%, as do white men (60% to 34%).
To round out the state polls, Morning Consult shows Biden with a 48% to 44% lead in Minnesota.