AZ-Sen: New Poll Has Mark Kelly (D) Leading Martha McSally (R) 51-41

Some very good news today out of Arizona:

When it comes to General Election backing, Senator Martha McSally falls short in earning the same level of support as President Donald Trump in Arizona. The latest HighGround poll has former Astronaut and current Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Mark Kelly enjoying a 10-point lead over Republican McSally who was appointed to the Senate a little over 17 months ago.  The same poll shows Trump within the margin of error to Democratic nominee Joe Biden showing that there is a path for Republicans in Arizona, but the question remains if she can execute on a winning campaign.

The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 5/18 through 5/22.  The poll surveyed likely Arizona 2020 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous election trends and expected Presidential Election turnout.  The margin of error is ±4.9%.

Q. If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally or Democrat Mark Kelly? 

41.3%  Martha McSally
51.3%  Mark Kelly
1.8%    Some other candidate
5.8%    Don’t know, Refused 

In addition, McSally holds an approval rating of 44.5% approve vs. 44.6% disapproval.  Kelly holds a similar 44.8% approval but has a lower disapproval of 33.6%.  He is, however, still unknown by nearly 22% of the electorate.

According to the survey, Kelly is leading in every age group with the exception of 50-64. McSally has 79% Republican support (6 points less than Donald Trump amongst Republicans).  Kelly has super strong support amongst Democrats (90%) outperforming Biden by nearly 3 points.  He also is performing well among Independent and unaffiliated voters with a 71% to 33% advantage.  McSally is behind by more than 20 points in Maricopa County and 17 points in Pima county.

                        Maricopa    Pima    Rural

McSally       36.5%      36.8%   59.7%
Kelly           56.9%      54.4%   31.2%

McSally enjoys strong support in Rural Arizona with a 60% to 31% edge of Kelly, while the President is winning that same cohort with 62% to 28% over Biden.

“Clearly, for the Arizona voter, Kelly is presenting himself as a better option than Biden, adopting the similar strategy which won Krysten Sinema her United States Senate seat in 2018 of avoiding the progressive partisan label that the Democratic Party’s nominee must shoulder,” said J. Charles “Chuck” Coughlin, President and CEO of HighGround Inc., which paid for and conducted the survey.

“The dominate narrative of this race so far is that Trump is pulling McSally down. Given yesterday’s revelation that Trump is only down 2 in Arizona, that is just not true,” explained Coughlin. “Trump is doing significantly better than McSally in nearly every sector of the electorate in Arizona, giving him a much clearer path to keeping the state’s electoral college votes in the Republican column come November.”

“The social and economic tumult of the past three months would lead one to believe that anything is possible, but the road ahead is narrowing for McSally’s campaign. Mark Kelly is a formidable candidate for the Arizona electorate, one could reasonably describe him as the best candidate the Democrats have running in this cycle,” said Coughlin.

“With a 20-point lead in Maricopa County and more than 17 point lead in Pima County, many might consider this race all but over. But, that would be a mistake. Our survey released yesterday indicated that 20% of the electorate is blaming China for COVID-19 and 25% still doesn’t know or is blaming no one.  Given the recent attacks on Kelly’s business dealings, you can expect the Republican narrative to focus sharply on this issue in an attempt to link Kelly to China and undermine his performance in the dominant media markets of Maricopa and Pima County.  McSally will clearly have to up her game with Republican and swing voters in Maricopa and greater Arizona in order to be successful, but as long as Trump is running a competitive race, you cannot count Senator McSally out.”

By the way, from the same poll:

Click here for the full results.

Let’s win big in Arizona this year. Click below to donate and get involved with Kelly and Biden’s campaigns:

Mark Kelly



Joe Biden