AZ-Sen: New Poll Has Mark Kelly (D) Leading Martha McSally (R) 50-45, Biden Beating Trump 49-46

Here’s the latest news today out of Arizona courtesy of OH Predictive Insights:

In the state’s other race with national consequences, former astronaut Mark Kelly maintains his advantage over incumbent Sen. Martha McSally. Half (50%) of Arizona voters prefer Kelly while 45% prefer McSally.

One of the unique aspects of the 2020 election is the degree to which McSally’s fortunes are tied to the President’s. While John McCain outran the Republican presidential nominee each time he appeared on the ballot with one, it does not appear McSally will follow the trend.

In another divergence from the norm, the Senate race in Arizona is drawing enormous amounts of money. The amount raised by both candidates is dwarfing the amounts raised by the candidates in Arizona’s Senate race just two years ago. At the close of the 3rd Quarter of 2020, McSally raised just over $50 million, compared to just $13 million at the same time in 2018. An even starker difference is Mark Kelly’s $83 million raised in 2020 and Kyrsten Sinema’s 2018 total of $16 million.

The Washington Post makes a great case that Trump is continuing to drag down McSally:

But Trump may have put Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the worst position of all. McSally, who was appointed to her seat in 2019 and is running for the remainder of John McCain’s unfinished term, probably wouldn’t have had much trouble winning in the pre-Trump era. But three of Trump’s specific political weaknesses — in the suburbs, with members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and with diverse electorates and older voters — have pushed the state left, leaving McSally caught between the president’s base and the voters she needs most.
The suburbs represent McSally’s biggest Trump-induced struggle. The vast majority of Arizona’s votes come from Maricopa and Pima counties, which roughly correspond to Phoenix and Tucson.

For years, these counties weren’t problems for Republicans. Maricopa used to be staunchly Republican, with older voters, immigration hard-liners and well-educated suburbanites coming together to vote for GOP politicians who ranged from immigration restrictionists such as former governor Jan Brewer to relative moderates such as the famously bipartisan Sen. John McCain. Democrats won Tucson, but not by margins large enough to overcome Phoenix and GOP-friendly rural areas.
But in 2016, Trump gave up suburban votes, losing ground in both counties.

And in the Presidential race:

Vice President Biden still holds a small lead over President Trump in the battle for Arizona’s pivotal 11 electoral votes, according to OH Predictive Insight’s (OHPI) last Arizona Public Opinion Pulse of the election cycle. Biden earns the support of 49% of likely voters to Trump’s 46%.

The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen garnered 3% and only 1% of voters were undecided.

Trump’s strongest support is found among Republicans (88%), men (54%), white voters (54%), and rural Arizona (54%). Biden, on the other hand, leans on Democrats (93%), Hispanic/Latino voters (60%), voters in Pima County (58%), and women (57%) for his strongest support.

The pool of voters left for candidates to persuade is shrinking by the day, as six in ten respondents said they had already cast their ballots. In fact, less than one quarter (23%) of the voters who had not already cast their ballots said they were waiting to do so on Election Day. In an unusual breaking of tradition, it appears that most Democrats have already returned their ballots while many Republicans are waiting to do so closer to Election Day.

By the way, Wired has a great piece out about Kelly that’s worth a read:

If Kelly is elected this November, he’ll be the the first astronaut on the Hill in nearly 40 years. Throughout most of his campaign, Kelly has had a lead over Republican incumbent Martha McSally in the polls reported by the political analysis site FiveThirtyEight, although polls added on Friday show them in a dead heat. That Kelly maintained a lead for so long in a state that has gone Republican in all but one of the past 17 presidential elections is surprising, especially given his lack of political experience.

Some of that might have to do with an electorate that’s hungry for evidence-based policy during a presidential administration that wages war on science. Arizonans have especially borne the brunt of anti-scientific politics during the coronavirus pandemic. Doug Ducey, the state’s governor, was slow to shut down businesses and quick to reopen them in the early stages of the pandemic. Throughout the pandemic, Arizona has had an overall testing positivity rate of slightly over 14 percent, one of the highest in the nation.

“Communities are suffering, and the main reason they're suffering is we have a failure of leadership to address a serious pandemic,” Kelly said during a debate with McSally earlier this month. “I worked at NASA for 15 years, and NASA wouldn't give you the 17th-century solution to a 21st-century problem.”

Click here to sign up to be a poll worker in Arizona.

Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Arizona Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Kelly, Biden and their fellow Arizona Democrats campaigns:



Mark Kelly

Hiral Tiperneni

Tom O’Halleran

Arizona Democratic Party

Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Coral Evans

Felipe Perez

Jennifer Pawlik

Judy Schwiebert

Kelli Butler

Felicia French

JoAnna Mendoza

AJ Kurdoglu

Doug Ervin

Christine Marsh