AZ-Sen: New Poll Has Mark Kelly (D) Leading Martha McSally (R) 50-40, Biden Beating Trump 49-46

I’m going to close out the day with some more good polling out of Arizona courtesy of The Justice Collaborative Institute:

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Arizona helped deliver the election to Donald Trump in 2016. However, over the past four years,Republicans have seen a 148,000 voter enrollment advantage trimmed to under 100,000, resulting in historic gains for Democrats in the State Legislature and the election of Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. In Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest county, the Democratic candidates for County Attorney and Sheriff hold leads against their Republican opponents.

New polling from The Justice Collaborative Institute shows that Arizona, a historically conservative state, could vote blue up and down the ballot next week. Our polling shows strong leads for Presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate candidate Mark Kelly in Arizona ahead of Tuesday’s election. Among the registered voters surveyed, former Vice President Biden is leading President Donald Trump 49% to 43% across the state, with 5% of respondents undecided. Democratic challenger Mark Kelly is leading current Senator Martha McSally 50% to 40%, with 10% of respondents undecided.

In Maricopa County, one of the most important national swing counties, our polling shows strong leads for Democrats in the County Attorney and Sheriff elections. Democratic Maricopa County Attorney nominee Julie Gunnigle leads incumbent Republican Allister Adel 38% to 32%.In the Maricopa County sheriff’s race, incumbent Democrat Paul Penzone leads Republican challenger Jerry Sheridan 47% to 33%.

Arizona has been one of the top advertising markets in the 2020 Presidential election, as both parties consider the region a crucial battleground. Almost $14 million in political advertising was poured into the Phoenix media market between April 1st and August 6th. The results in Arizona will have significant implications for the national landscape. Since McSally was appointed to the seat vacated by the late John McCain, the winning candidate will be sworn in after the election results are finalized. This would narrow the Republican advantage in the Senate during a lame duck session in which a new COVID-19 stimulus package is expected to be negotiated.

Here’s some more polling out of Arizona today for comparison:

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— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2020

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— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2020

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— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2020

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By the way, this is just down right embarrassing:

After saying she was “respected by everybody” and “great,” Trump rushed McSally to the stage at an airport rally in Goodyear to say a few words.

“Martha, just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let’s go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on. Let’s go,” Trump said.

McSally spoke for just over a minute, and said she was “proud” to work with the president — something a moderator could not get her say during her debate with Democratic challenger Mark Kelly earlier this month.

After McSally spoke, Trump called up a trio of politicians from out of state to speak — Sens. Rand Paul, of Kentucky, Mike Lee, of Utah, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy, of California. Of the three, only McCarthy is running for re-election in November. All spoke longer than McSally did — as did another guest speaker Trump called on, Nigel Farage of Britain's Brexit party. Trump did not rush any of those four.

Also, happy to see Kelly do this:

Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is going to court over a conservative website’s uncorroborated claims — which he denies — that he dressed up as Adolf Hitler for a 1985 Halloween party at the Merchant Marine Academy.
The lawsuit claims that Flyover Media, which operates the website known as National File, knew when it posted the photo that Kelly was not the person in the picture dressed as the Nazi dictator. The website did not quote anyone verifying the image was of Kelly.
Kelly’s campaign furnished statements by classmates who back up the candidate’s denial, Gonski said. But she said the operation decided to put up the photo and the claim anyway.
In a written response, a representative of National File said the story, which remains online, has been updated “to reflect Mark Kelly’s denial and his classmates’ comments on the record.”
Gonski linked the posting to efforts on behalf of the Senate Leadership Fund, which has spent tens of millions of dollars in attack ads urging Kelly’s defeat. That organization also gave $3.5 million to Defend Arizona, a separate political action committee working to keep Kelly’s opponent, appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally, in office.

Click here to sign up to be a poll worker in Arizona.

Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Arizona Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Kelly, Biden and their fellow Arizona Democrats campaigns:

Biden-Harris

Arizona:

Mark Kelly

Hiral Tiperneni

Tom O’Halleran

Arizona Democratic Party

Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Coral Evans

Felipe Perez

Jennifer Pawlik

Judy Schwiebert

Kelli Butler

Felicia French

JoAnna Mendoza

AJ Kurdoglu

Doug Ervin

Christine Marsh