AZ-Sen: New Data Oribital Poll Has Kyrsten Sinema (D) Leading Martha McSally (R) 46-42

Some encouraging news today out of Arizona courtesy of Data Orbital’s latest poll:

Phoenix, AZ (September 12, 2018) – As the battle for control of the US House and Senate heats up, Data Orbital is pleased to present the results on the US Senate race from the statewide survey conducted from September 4-6.  

With the primary election behind them, both Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema have pivoted to a full focus on the general election.  And while the race is shaping up to be tight, the results of our first post-primary survey show the Democratic candidate with a slight lead, just outside the margin of error.  Congresswoman Sinema is at 46.1% with Congresswoman McSally at 41.8%.  A little over 8% of likely voters remain undecided in the race.  

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: “As we anticipated, this race is shaping up to be one to watch to the end.  While Sinema currently holds the lead, both candidates are making a strong showing.  Moderate and undecided voters may be the ones to decide this race, but turnout will also play a major role. With high voter turnout in Arizona’s primary, we will be working to predict likely turnout for each party in the general election, a factor for races up and down the ballot.”

This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 70% of the results from land lines and 30% from cell phones. It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18%, with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based off historical Arizona general election turnout. The poll was conducted on September 4-6. All non-released questions prior to questions released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

Now to give you the heads up, this isn’t the only poll on this race to come out today:

Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday.

It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections.

The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year.

Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar margins. McSally has a 49-39 favorable/unfavorable rating, and Sinema has a 47-38 favorable/unfavorable rating.

However, McSally, whose approval rating has been tied to that of President Trump in past polls, is buoyed by improved numbers for the president in Arizona.

Something to keep in mind about that poll:

OH Predictive Insights surveyed 597 likely Arizona voters from Sept. 5 to 6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.01 percentage points.

A one day poll with high approval for Trump in a state he won by small single-digits and has had low approval ratings in the state make that poll suspicious. Now, there is one more poll on this particular race that came out on Monday from Gravis to consider:

A Gravis Marketing poll found McSally ahead of Sinema 49 to 48 percent, a lead within the survey’s 3.3-point margin of error. Three percent of voters are still undecided.

Monday’s survey is the first one this year where McSally, who recently won a competitive three-way primary, is polling slightly ahead of Sinema, who didn’t face a fierce primary fight.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling, Sinema has led McSally anywhere from 4 to 11 points in various polls this year. But with the general election officially starting, McSally is starting to close the gap with her Democratic opponent.

When voters are asked who they’re “leaning towards” if the election were held today, McSally garners 23 percent of the vote, while Sinema takes 11 percent. But two-thirds of voters are still unsure.

The poll also tested President Trump’s job approval numbers in a traditionally red state that he won by under 5 points in 2016. His numbers are underwater in Arizona, with 45 percent who approve and 52 percent who disapprove.

One more thing to note about the Gravis poll:

Monday’s Gravis poll was conducted from Sept. 5 to 7 and surveyed 882 likely voters in Arizona. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.