AZ-Sen: NBC/Marist Poll Has Mark Kelly (D) Leading Martha McSally (R) 52-45

Here’s the latest news today out of Arizona courtesy of NBC/Marist poll:

Finally, in Arizona’s competitive Senate race, the NBC News/Marist poll of the state finds Democrat Mark Kelly ahead of appointed Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., by 6 points among likely voters, 52 percent to 46 percent.

Among all registered voters, it’s Kelly 52 percent, McSally 45 percent — down from Kelly’s 12-point lead in July.

The NBC/Marist poll of Arizona was conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1 of 717 likely voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percentage points), 988 registered voters (plus-minus 3.9 percentage points) and 1,082 adults (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

In the presidential election:

Here’s some info:

Most other recent public polling in Arizona shows Biden with a slight lead, though within the margin of error.

In both battlegrounds, Biden enjoys an advantage among those who have already voted. In Arizona, 76 percent of likely voters say they have already cast ballots, and Biden is ahead with them, 56 percent to 42 percent. But among the 24 percent yet to vote in the state, Trump leads, 66 percent to 26 percent.

And in Pennsylvania, 32 percent of likely voters say they had already cast ballots, and they’re breaking for Biden, 81 percent to 18 percent. But among the 68 percent of likely voters in the Keystone State who’ve yet to vote, it’s Trump 58 percent, Biden 38 percent.

Biden also is overperforming with white voters, seniors and independents in both states, as other polling has reflected. But Trump is overperforming with non-white voters in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Data Orbital also shows a tight race in both the Senate and presidential race:

For the first time this entire cycle, our survey shows President Trump within less than 1% of Vice President Biden. 45.3% of likely voters selected President Trump, 45.9% of voters selected Vice President Biden, 2.4% of voters selected Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and only 0.6% were firmly undecided. The two largest factors contributing to this tightening are: 1) Republican voters are coming home to President Trump. In our last two surveys, VP Biden had been picking up between 12% and 13% of the Republican vote. That has narrowed to 7.5% in this latest survey. 2) President Trump is closing the gap with Independents. He is picking up those previously undecided and some Independents who previously were voting for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen. There are now also 4.6% of people saying they are refusing to supply their answer.

This recent shift in the numbers is especially noteworthy because prior numbers had never shown President Trump within less than 1% of Vice President Biden. The shifts we are seeing are also consistent with other trends being seen from around the country.

The U.S. Senate race is also seeing the same tightening as the Presidential race. Senator McSally received 46% of the vote, while 47.1% of voters selected Mark Kelly and 2.7% were undecided. This tightening in the race can be attributed to fewer Republicans voting for Democrat Mark Kelly and to previously undecided Independents (about 10% in the two previous surveys) almost exclusively now selecting Senator McSally. These two shifts have caused Mark Kelly’s lead to be cut down to almost 1%. This is the first time this entire cycle that his lead has been less than 5%.

And here’s Morning Consult’s poll:

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