Last updated on July 30, 2020
Morning Consult has some new polls out in these Senate battleground states today and all in all, very good and encouraging news for Senate Democrats campaigns. First off, Arizona:
Of the five Senate contests polled, Democrats are strongest in Arizona, where ex-astronaut Mark Kelly — the fundraising dynamo and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) — leads Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) by 16 percentage points, 52 percent to 36 percent, with backing from 14 percent of Republicans. Kelly’s advantage is 9 points larger than Biden’s lead over Trump in the battleground state.
Next up, Michigan:
In Michigan, one of the Senate GOP’s few offensive targets this year, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leads Republican John James, a veteran and businessman, 49 percent to 35 percent. Peters’ lead is roughly in line with Biden’s 10-point edge in the Wolverine State, and comes as his challenger asks voters to look beyond the presidential contest in the Senate race.
Followed by North Carolina:
The gap is even wider in North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ issues with the GOP base cropped up in Morning Consult polling early last year. In a state where 96 percent of likely GOP voters back Trump for re-election, 76 percent say they’d vote for Tillis in November. And on the ballot with Trump, who’s tied with Biden at 47 percent, Tillis trails his Democratic rival, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, by 9 points, 37 percent to 46 percent.
In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) leads Sen. Cory Gardner (R) by 13 points among the swing voting bloc, part of an overall 6-point lead over the incumbent, 48 percent to 42 percent. Unlike Tillis, James and McSally, Gardner — who is running ahead of the president statewide — is not lacking significant support from Republican likely voters. His vote share among the base matches Hickenlooper’s with Democrats (87 percent) and is roughly the same as Trump’s (85 percent) with Republicans.
And finally, Georgia:
In Georgia, Perdue leads Ossoff, 45 percent to 42 percent, backed with support from 88 percent of likely Republican voters (compared to Trump’s 91 percent), and a 9-point advantage over Ossoff with the state’s likely independent voters (40 percent to 31 percent).
This is the first poll we’ve seen out of the Colorado Senate race so it’s possible that it’s tightened but The Denver Post points out that this poll is still predominantly good news for Hickenlooper:
The good news for Gardner is that it shows him outperforming Trump, which he will almost certainly need to do by a sizable percentage Nov. 3 if he is to win a second term in the Senate. Trump remains unpopular with a majority of Coloradans but Gardner’s campaign is hoping Biden voters will be willing to vote for him over Hickenlooper.
The poll also has plenty of good news for Hickenlooper. Not only does he lead the incumbent Gardner as July comes to a close, but unaffiliated voters who were polled favor Hickenlooper over Gardner by 13 percentage points, 48% to 35%.
Joe Biden beats Trump in Arizona (49/42), Colorado (52/39), Georgia (47/46), and Michigan (52/42) and is tied with Trump in North Carolina (47/47).
While Perdue has a higher leader with Independent voters in Georgia, it still a big chunk of undecided Independent voters that are undecided (18%), giving Ossoff a great opportunity to win.
Let’s keep up the momentum to win both the White House and the Senate. Click below to donate and get involved with Biden, Kelly, Hickenlooper, Ossoff, Peters, and Cunningham’s campaigns:
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