AP poll: Biden leads by 12% but 21% are undecided (of which 32% are “independents”)

50 days and Biden still leads nationally but there are fewer undecideds than 2016 in the details when you get to registered and likely voters, even if they have been declining since July. Like most polling, the devil’s in the details.

x

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat and Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote? If you are unsure you can say undecided.

BIDEN/TRUMP All Male Female Gen Z Millennial Gen X Boomer Silent White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Other, non-Hispanic Hispanic 2+, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic No HS diploma HS graduate or equivalent Some college BA or above Northeast Midwest South West Yes No Joe Biden Donald Trump
Joe Biden 45% 44% 47% 48% 44% 46% 43% 48% 38% 70% 29% 47% 45% 72% 39% 38% 44% 59% 52% 44% 41% 50% 48% 30% 100% 0%
Donald Trump 33% 35% 31% 19% 27% 35% 40% 41% 45% 3% 35% 21% 28% 16% 28% 36% 36% 28% 24% 37% 35% 32% 34% 29% 0% 100%
Undecided 21% 21% 21% 30% 28% 18% 15% 10% 16% 26% 36% 33% 26% 13% 33% 24% 19% 12% 23% 19% 23% 18% 18% 37% 0% 0%

x

Image
there were 2 issues with 2016:
1. Pollsters did not adjust for education levels
2. It says there are fewer undecideds based on polling averages

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Image