Alright Volunteer State: What Does This Record Early Voting Turnout Mean?

There is record setting early voting turnout for Tennessee, but what does this mean for Phil Bredesen?  Once again, in my miniseries on “What is going on in other states because there is not much happening in Kentucky?”, I’m just trying to figure out if I should be hopeful or brace myself for disappointment.  Here is what I read:

In two weeks of early voting, which ended Thursday, voters in the state have cast almost as many ballots as they did in the entire 2014 midterm election.

On Friday, the Secretary of State's office announced 1,378,840 people had voted early, just 50,000 fewer than the total in the last midterm.

And the the SOS of Tennessee says we need to compare this midterm to the 2016 Election:

The early voting turnout has been so high this election, Goins said, that elections officials have shifted to comparing numbers to the 2016 presidential election rather than the 2014 midterm.

But considering I do not know where any of the Democrats are in Tennessee, is this a good or a bad thing?:

Williamson County is among the top counties in the state in terms of turnout during early voting for this year's midterm election.

As of Wednesday night, with one day remaining for early voting, more than 43 percent of registered voters in Williamson cast a ballot, inching closer to the 54 percent turnout in early voting during the 2016 presidential election.

If I am not mistaken, isn’t this where Marsha Blackburn lives?  And they are saying it is more suburban county and wealthier.  In theory, a Democrat may do better in the suburbs, but given it is a wealthier area, I would think this county would be filled with Republicans.

Now, I see that the county with Nashville has had a high voter turnout, so I assume that is a good thing for Bredesen.  And Charlie Cook HINTED on MSNBC that public polling in TN on the senate race is not accurate.  Cook indicated that the race is closer than the 7-8 points that a number of public polls have published.  But the maddening thing is that Cook and others in the media are only hinting at things.

Yeah, it gets me to want to scream, “Oh what the hell have you seen dude!” 



So here I am asking any Daily Kossacks in TN:  what are you seeing or hearing?

It can be argued that higher turnout helps out Democrats, at least places like 538 have stated this.  And I’ve seen when Democrats sit on their asses that Republicans make up a bigger slice of the electorate and then Republican candidates win.  I’m thinking of 1994, 2010, and 2014 midterms. 

But this idea of higher turnout = good news for Democats gets scrambled if it is a redstate, and the redder the state the worse that scrambling gets.  I’ve seen this happen in at least two elections in NC (1990 and 2002).  In 1990, Senator Jesse Helms won reelection because of high voter turnout from Charlotte where it was reported that “high turnout from MODERATE Republicans” helped.  

Yeah, moderate Republican voters my ass.  But I digress…

Then, there was high voter turnout in the western part of NC during 2002, and at that time, western NC was a Republican area.  The hapless Democrat running for the Senate, future Catfood Commissioner Erskin Bowles, lost to Republican Libby Dole.  I was there when both these lovely elections occurred.

But other Daily Kossacks like Doctor Who have pointed out that there are not enough registered Democrats in TN to get Bredesen over the finish line.  Bredesen has won state wide office before because he had Republican voters cross over and vote for him.  Therefore, a higher voter turnout in TN might not be a bad thing for Bredesen.

Once again, you all tell me what this means.