Last updated on August 20, 2020
An ABC News/Washington Post Poll shows Joe Biden leading Trump nationally by 10% or better. Biden leads Trump by 54% to 44% among likely voters and leads by 53% to 41% among registered voters. The ABC News Poll is one of only six pollsters rated “A+” by website 538.
Trump’s Rural Advantage Has Dropped by Half
VOTE GROUPS – Among registered voter groups, Biden leads Trump by 8 points in the suburbs, 51-43 percent, essentially steady since May. Biden’s advantage is far bigger in urban areas, 67-29 percent, where he needs turnout.
In rural areas Trump leads by 24 points, down from 47 in March as the pandemic has spread. Critically, Biden has a 17-point lead among independents, 54-37 percent, potentially a swing group that Trump won by 4 points in 2016. Whites divide closely, 50-45 percent, Trump-Biden, compared with Trump +18 points in March; Biden’s +45 points among racial and ethnic minorities. And men have moved toward the Democrat; they now divide 51-43 percent, Biden Trump. Biden is +16 points among women.
With 78 day to go until November 3, it matters a great deal that Biden do well everywhere since the US Senate will be up for grabs as well as every US house seat, a number of governorships, and legislative races in most states.
YouGov is also out with a national poll today with similar results. Among registered voters, Biden leads by 49% to 38% and by 50% to 41% among likely voters. YouGov is rated at “B” by 538.
For months, Biden’s margin hovered in the high single digits. But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted Aug. 14 and 15, Trump’s faltering coronavirus response and unpopular crusade against universal mail-in voting have further weakened his standing, propelling Biden to his first double-digit lead of the campaign.
National polls from yesterday were more conflicted with a CNN Poll (B/C rating) showing Biden leading by 50% to 46%. The NBC News/Washington Post Poll (A- rating) gave Biden an advantage of 50% to 41%, and the YouGov Poll released yesterday was 52% to 42% in favor of Biden.
Last week, Marist, also an A+ pollster, showed Biden ahead of Trump by 53% to 42%.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Aug. 12-15, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 31-26-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
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