a house is not a home and a simulation is not an election at 538, but the odds still favor Biden
This 538 analysis does explain the strange Trump tactical moves to Nevada and Minnesota, as they see their secondary targets instead of their main swing state targets. We can count on the race tightening and the margins are closer in the swing states.
We’ve moved past Labor Day and into the home stretch of the 2020 election cycle. Joe Biden still leads in national polls by about 7 or 8 percentage points, and state polls also show a relatively stable race, with most — excluding those in Florida — containing good news for Biden. However, don’t count President Trump out yet. He still has a roughly one-in-four chance of pulling off an upset.
- On Wednesday, as part of his upcoming book on the Trump presidency, “Rage,” veteran journalist Bob Woodward revealed that Trump downplayed the severity of the coronavirus to the American public. The question, of course, is whether this revelation will move public opinion against Trump; he’s already gotten middling marks for his handling of the pandemic.
- At the very least, we know Trump didn’t become any more popular following the conventions. On average, polls asking Americans whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden showed that Biden gained a few points in popularity. His net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) improved from -2 percentage points before the conventions to +3 after. Trump, on the other hand, didn’t get even a small boost — his net favorability dropped from -13 points to -14.
1. It's a closer race in the Electoral College, with Biden ahead by perhaps 4-5 points in the tipping-point states.
2. Our model expects the race to tighten by a point or so because of improvement in the economy.
— DAWG (@88SEATTLE61) September 9, 2020
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 8, 2020
Given that Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, while Hillary Clinton lost it in 2016, the anxiety is perhaps understandable.