538 says there's “Little sign of the presidential race tightening.”

Rampant GOP dickishness. Kushner also said his father-in-law “basically did a full hostile takeover of the Republican Party.”

The next week is going to be very stressful, be patient, regardless of the outcome.

Keep the dog away from your homework

Wisconsin remains contested but polling has gotten stranger.

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

And this is not an easy poll to disregard. ABC News/Washington Post adheres to what we consider the gold-standard methodology (meaning they use live phone interviewers, call cell phones as well as landlines and participate in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative or the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archive) and earns an A+ grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings database.1 The poll single-handedly increased Biden’s lead in our polling average of Wisconsin from 7.1 points to 9.0 points, and it is currently the most influential poll in our forecast of Wisconsin, where Biden’s chances of winning the state have reached a new high as a result — 93 in 100.

[…]

What might be going on here? Well, Biden has led in some of these states for a while, but it’s also possible that Trump could be losing support in the Midwest due to the recent spike in COVID-19 cases there. Much of Wisconsin is currently a hot spot; on Tuesday, the state reported more new cases (5,262) and deaths (64) than any other day of the pandemic.

The same day, Iowa and Minnesota announced a record number of hospitalizations, and cases are on the rise in Michigan as well.

fivethirtyeight.com/…

MADISON – Half a dozen liberal groups in Wisconsin say they were deceived by a longtime member of the conservative group Project Veritas this summer in an apparent attempt to get damaging footage of Democrats in a battleground state.

Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, Voces de la Frontera and others on Friday asked Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul to investigate the matter, according to a letter the groups provided to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Kaul has not said what he will do.

Project Veritas for years has misrepresented itself to get an inside look at how Democratic campaigns and liberal groups operate in Wisconsin and around the country. Its secretly recorded videos have hurt some entities, but some of the group’s claims about improprieties have fizzled when independently investigated.

Veritas’ founder, James O’Keefe, in 2010 pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for unlawfully entering federal property as part of an undercover operation at the office of then-U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from Louisiana.

In the latest episode, a man with ties to Veritas posed as a documentary filmmaker to get interviews with liberal groups, according to those groups. A second man pretended to be a member of Our Wisconsin Revolution to get access to private meetings.

In all, six groups said they were targeted: BLOC, Voces, Our Wisconsin Revolution, Souls to the Polls, Wisconsin Race Class Narrative Project and Wisconsin Voices.

“We believe that any information they have obtained in this process will be used to intentionally misrepresent our work, prevent people from exercising their right to vote and further damage political discourse in our state,” the groups wrote in their letter to Kaul.

www.jsonline.com/…

After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.

And then there’s some other polling averages, setting an interesting metric:

Image
@RealCarlAllen Since 2004, a candidate has polled at or above 49% in a battleground state and gone on to lose that state once. One time. #ElectionTwitter Never in recent history (curious if ever?) – has a candidate polled over 50% and lost.