CNN has a new report on the history of the Biden-Trump polls:
There were more than 40 national public polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. He's the first challenger to be ahead of the incumbent in every May poll since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976. Carter, of course, won the 1976 election. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era.Biden remains the lone challenger to be up in the average of polls in every single month of the election year. His average lead in a monthly average of polls has never dipped below 4 points and has usually been above it. [emphasis added]
This is important, but I’m posting this mainly to respond to those who say it’s soon to trust polls.
That may be generally true, but I think this year it’s different, for two main reasons:
- All the polls so far taken put Biden ahead of Trump, sometimes by double-digits. Recent polls are putting him over 50%, meaning an absolute majority of voters have decided — at least right now — to vote for him. This creates a self-sustaining momentum — a bandwagon.
Trump is not exactly the calmest of persons when dealing with good news. He flies off the handle at any hint of opposition. He is going absolutely batshit insane over these numbers. Then he panics, and when he does, he gets obviously panicked, which turns off more people. He also becomes even less capable of saying or doing anything coherent. That has two consequences: He makes it that much more difficult for his campaign to function, and he turns off more and more voters with his ranting and incoherence. Which lowers his number some more, which gets him more enraged. Rinse and repeat.
In other words, the polls showing Biden ahead, nicely ahead, are an opportunity for us to push these polls even harder. Don’t take this as reason for complacency — there is NEVER a time for complacency, not even after Biden is sworn in. Take it as a sign we’re doing something right, and do it some more.