Some good news today courtesy of Fox News’ latest poll:

In the 2020 ballot test, Biden leads Trump by 48-40 percent.  Biden’s 8-point advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error.  However, given that 11 percent are undecided or plan to vote for someone else, neither candidate hits 50 percent support.  The race could go either way.

Among voters who are extremely motivated about voting this fall, Biden has a 12-point advantage (53-41 percent).  More Biden supporters (69 percent) than Trump supporters (63 percent) feel extremely motivated to vote.

Trump leads by 7 points among men and by 30 among rural whites.  He won both groups by larger margins in 2016 (11 and 37 points respectively).

Biden leads by 20 points among women and 64 points among blacks.  Compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, he bests her performance among women (Clinton was +13) but lags among blacks (Clinton +81).

he 27-point gender gap is even larger than the record 24-point gap in 2016.

Biden makes inroads with two key groups: independents prefer him by 13 points and voters ages 65+ by 17 points.  In 2016, Trump won independents by 4 and seniors by 7.

Even small differences in party loyalty and defections matter in tight races.  Biden receives the support of 88 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans.  For Trump, 84 percent of Republicans back him and 3 percent of Democrats.

From the poll:

Conducted May 17-20, 2020 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,207 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all registered voters.

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