projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

A number of recent state polls have been released over the past week and almost all have good news for Biden. The bump Trump got in his approval in March is now history, in fact a Morning Consult Poll shows Trump’s rating of his handling of the pandemic has dropped 22 points since their poll of March 17-22 and is now at 43% approval and 57% disapproval on that issue.

www.msn.com/…

As we approach the six month out mark, it might be useful to see where we stand in the state by state election system we use to elect a President. It is a bit of a shock to realize early and absentee voting should begin in about four and a half months.

State Poll Summary: Biden Leads, But Swing States Are Still Close

538 Politics Podcast: Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19?

fivethirtyeight.com/…

  • A = All Americans: Surveys of all Americans are the broadest and most inclusive survey population. They are surveys of the adult population (age 18+) in the United States with no other screening criteria.
  • RV = Registered voters: Registered voter surveys are slightly more targeted surveys. All states require some form of voter registration before a citizen is allowed to vote. Surveys of registered voters attempt to represent the population actually allowed to participate in an election. 
  • LV = Likely voters: Likely voter surveys attempt to anticipate who among registered voters will actually be voting in the upcoming election. Most research organizations use a combination of prior voting behavior, interest in the election and self-report likelihood to vote to categorize likely voters.