National thirty day stay-at-home order, even if Trump’s too cowardly to declare it as a policy.
Trump’s letters should be such an asset for the National Archives.
If and when the current wave of infections is suppressed, the U.S. will remain vulnerable.
Technically this is not an assumption in the model, but a prediction: Notwithstanding the large number of people who will get sick and even die over the roughly three months the model projects it will take to snuff the current wave of infections, the vast majority of Americans will not contract the virus. This means they will not have immunity against future waves of infection, which could be sparked by cases in the U.S. that remained undetected or by infected visitors from countries where the virus is still circulating widely.
“Our rough guess is that come June, at least 95% of the U.S. will still be susceptible,” says IHME's Murray. “That means, of course, it can come right back. And so then we really need to have a robust strategy in place to not have a second wave.”