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Data For Progress Poll Has Bernie Sanders With +19 Point Lead in NV.

New Gallup data shows a possible path to victory for Bernie Sanders

538 gives the polling outfit Data for Progress a B/C rating, but Data for Progress has Bernie Sanders with 35% support with likely caucus goers in NV.  Here is a link to the poll.  

I know.  I know.  Polling in NV sucks.  Jon Ralston says that, and I believe him.  Therefore, take this result with all the others.

The interesting result that even Ralston pointed out is that Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden are essentially tied for second place in this poll.  Could Biden come in 2nd in NV?  It’s possible.  But like any caucus, it is difficult to predict who is going to turnout.  And we have the early turnout issue on top of this problem.

Key Findings:

  • Senator Bernie Sanders has a commanding nineteen point in the Nevada caucus, with 35 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. He is followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Former Vice President Joe Biden who are all tightly clustered at 16, 15 and 14 percentage points, respectively.
  • Senator Amy Klobuchar, whose third place finish in the New Hampshire primary garnered considerable media coverage sits in sixth place with 9 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting her.
  • Sanders performs extremely well with Hispanic likely caucusgoers, registering 66 percent support, with no other candidate cracking double digits. He continues to see strong support among younger voters, with likely caucusgoers under 45 supporting him at 64 percent. Of those who have made up their mind, Sanders registers 47 percent support.
  • Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).

Data for Progress conducted a poll of 766 likely Nevada caucusgoers from 2/12/2020 through 2/15/2020. Likely caucusgoers were identified from the Nevada voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent.  

Is this real?  Shrugs.  I’m not in NV.  You all in NV will have to tell me.