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Bernie versus Bloomberg: could super-Tuesday become stupid-Tuesday

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So many different games of the middling sort. From Nikki Haley invoking “liberal socialist” to what ever counts as appeals to “moderates”. Moderates’ fear of extremism and controversy will get more complicated as 2016 will get revisited by the prospect of a contested convention. Salt’s granularity gets more complex rather than rock-like, even as the perimeters seem to be Bernie and Mike and as the fight for the putative middle gets more complicated. 

(January 2016)

But if former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to face off against Donald Trump in the presidential race, it would hardly be a competition — at least when it comes to net worth.

Reports surfaced over the weekend that Bloomberg, founder of financial information and media firm Bloomberg LP, is putting out feelers for a potential third-party run for the White House.

Though the possibility of him entering the race comes with plenty of caveats — for example, he would likely only do so if Sanders wrestled the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton, according to The New York Times — one expert said his entry could force Trump to “pivot” his message away from his own wealth creation.

www.cnbc.com/…

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The Democratic primary is in a confusing state at the moment. And our forecast model is a little confused, also. It’s making a couple of assumptions about how the polls may react to New Hampshire that may not be entirely right. The model is also limited by the lack of polling in states that vote after New Hampshire, most notably Nevada and South Carolina. So we’d encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in.

But the two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for:

  • Model takeaway No. 1: Sen. Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.

  • Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.

fivethirtyeight.com/…

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— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) February 12, 2020

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— Melissa Jo Peltier (@MelissaJPeltier) February 12, 2020

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— The Hill (@thehill) February 11, 2020

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— Wendell Potter (@wendellpotter) February 12, 2020

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— Warren Gunnels (@GunnelsWarren) February 12, 2020

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— Peter Morley (@morethanmySLE) February 12, 2020

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