The Nation has a great piece out right now in which Steve Phillips lists 12 states that he believes that Democrats have a great shot at flipping in this year’s election to give them a Senate Majority:
The impeachment trial in the US Senate is clearly a constitutional and moral moment of truth. It is also an excellent opportunity to advance the nitty-gritty work that will defeat vulnerable incumbent Republican senators and allow Democrats to recapture control of that critical chamber when voters head to the polls this November. It is easy for progressives to get excited about compelling candidates—people with impressive life stories and hard-hitting ads—and then shower resources on those candidates. And, yes, charisma and well-crafted ads are nice. But as Virginia Democrats’ success last falldemonstrates, robust, statewide voter mobilization operations are better.
Republicans currently hold 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats; Democrats will need a minimum net gain of three seats and a new, Democratic vice president to flip partisan control of the body. Of the 23 Republican-controlled Senate seats up for election this year, there are currently 13 seats in 12 states that offer plausible prospects for Democrats to defeat their Republican opponent.
Factoring in four key criteria—past electoral results, demographic developments, existing civic engagement infrastructure, and incumbent favorability ratings—I have given all 12 states with a Republican incumbent (and one state, Alabama, with a vulnerable Democrat) a score that illustrates their respective winnability.
The states mentioned in the article are Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (2 Senate elections in this state), Texas, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Montana. Not mentioned in this article, but should be included, are Kansas and Alaska. In Kansas, Kris Kobach (R. KS) is on the verge to become the GOP nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat:
A new poll shows Rep. Roger Marshall has closed the gap with Republican rival Kris Kobach in Kansas’ open seat Senate race, but also indicates the Kansas congressman remains largely unknown to many GOP primary voters.
The survey, which found the two Republicans in a dead heat for the nomination, was paid for by the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall’s candidacy in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts.
Marshall, who represents western Kansas, narrowly leads all candidates with 29 percent in the survey of 1,246 likely GOP primary voters, according to the poll, conducted January 19 and 20 by the Kansas City-based firm co/Efficient.
Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state and party’s 2018 nominee for governor, has support from 28 percent, which puts Marshall’s 1-point lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Meanwhile, former Republican/state Sen. Barbara Bollier is the likely Democratic nominee. Her campaign announced she raised $1.1 million in the last three months of the year and she should be a credible candidate if Republicans nominate Kobach. If Republicans nominate Marshall or Wagle, Democrats don’t stand much of a chance.
With Pompeo’s apparently official decline and thus the increased likelihood of Kobach winning the nomination, Inside Elections is changing its rating of the Kansas Senate race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.
A Democratic win in Kansas would have a significant impact on the path to Democratic control of the Senate because winning in Kansas would decrease the need for Democrats to defeat GOP incumbents in Maine and Iowa. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a Senate majority or a net gain of three seats in addition to a White House victory to control the Senate (because a Democratic vice president would break tie votes).
The filing deadline in Kansas isn’t until June 1, so there’s still time for Pompeo to change his mind. The primary is Aug. 4.
And Dr. Al Gross (IAK), who has been endorsed by both the Alaska Democratic Party and the DSCC has been gaining a lot of support and raised over a million dollars for his Senate bid against U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan (R. AK):
I strongly recommend you read Dr. Gross’ interview with The Anchorage Press.
Now I don’t think I need to emphasize to all of you how much we need to win the Senate majority. I don’t know if we can win all twelve of the states mentioned along with the two other seats I mentioned but we sure as hell have to try. I’ll also still advocate for either abolishing the filibuster or reforming the filibuster once we have a Democrat in the White House along with our Senate Majority. For now, let’s go big. Click below to donate and get involved with all the Democrats running for Senate: