AZ-Sen: New OH Insights Poll Has Mark Kelly (D) Beating Martha McSally (R) 47-44

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Here’s the latest news today out of Arizona:

Retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) leads Sen. Martha McSally (R) by a narrow 3-point margin in Arizona, a state critical to Democratic chances of recapturing the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to a new poll.
A poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights shows Kelly leading McSally by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin, fueled by a substantial gender gap. Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), leads among women by a 53 percent to 38 percent margin, while McSally leads among men by a smaller 51 percent to 41 percent margin.
Kelly holds a 10-point lead in Maricopa County, which contributes about 60 percent of the statewide vote. Only one statewide candidate in recent memory has won Arizona without carrying Maricopa. He leads among independent voters by a 51 percent to 37 percent margin.
McSally, meanwhile, holds a substantial 22-point advantage in the state’s rural communities. She leads Kelly among white voters by a single point, but she holds an overwhelming 58 percent to 32 percent edge among Hispanic voters, the poll shows.

There’s a typo in this article. I checked the poll and it’s Kelly who has the 58% edge with Hispanic voters, not McSally. You can view the full results here.

By the way, kudos to California in exile for finding this article from the Washington Examiner back in September.  It looks like John McCain’s old donors are giving up on McSally and backing Kelly:

Democrat Mark Kelly is receiving a boost for his Senate campaign from an unexpected source: campaign donors to the late Republican Sen. John McCain, who held the Arizona seat for more than 30 years.

In backing Kelly, a former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, the contributors are effectively snubbing McCain's GOP successor, Sen. Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat in December 2018 after losing to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally must win the November 2020 special election for the right to serve out the final two years of McCain’s term.

While McSally, 53, still has McCain donors on her books, the crossover giving is, in a sense, an extension of bad blood between her and the McCain family, some of whom were none too pleased at her appointment by Republican Gov. Doug Ducey.

Reginald Ballantyne, who sat on McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign’s Arizona finance team, doled out the maximum amount of $5,400 for his 2016 Senate primary and general election. Ballantyne has, as of last month, given Kelly’s primary and general senatorial campaigns $4,000 but nothing to McSally's.

Don Budinger, a 2014 McCain fundraiser host committee member, donated a total of $1,500 to McCain’s primary account in 2014 and 2016. This year, he's contributed $1,000 to Kelly but nothing to McSally to contest the Senate.

Matthew Feeney, identified by the Phoenix News Journal as a “notable” executive McCain donor, did give to McSally in 2018 when the then-congresswoman, herself a former U.S. Air Force colonel, combat pilot, and Iraq War veteran, ran for the seat vacated by retired Sen. Jeff Flake. Feeney, who gave a total of $6,400 to McCain for primary and general battles between 2014 and 2016, has also invested $1,000 in Kelly.

With other contributions from Ron Ober, Jerry Hirsch, Robert Bertrand, Robert Groves, Stanton Dodge, and Susan Levine, the group's given $33,600 to McCain, $27,175 to Kelly, but only $250 to McSally.

The poll also shows Trump with a 48/50 approval to disapproval rating and showing the Democratic Presidential candidates competitive. Arizona is going to be a big state for us next year and it’s part of the path not just to the White House but also to a Senate Majority. Click here to donate and get involved with Kelly’s campaign.