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Registration Changes May Imperil More California Republicans

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California Secretary of State has published registration figures that show state voters are registering as Republicans at lower and lower rates. Since January 2016, registered Republicans have dropped by four points while Democratic registration has increased by one percent. Total registration is up sharply.

Since the last 154-Day Report of Registration for a primary in a presidential election year (January 5, 2016):

The total voter registration in the state increased from 17,259,413 to 20,328,636.

The percentage of eligible Californians who are registered to vote increased from 70.2% to 80.7%.

The percentage of voters who have no party preference increased from 24.0% to 26.7%.

The percentage of voters registered with a qualified political party decreased from 75.2% to 72.2%.

The percentage of voters registered with the Democratic Party increased from 43.1% to  44.1%.

The percentage of voters registered with the Republican Party decreased from 27.6% to  23.6%.

In 2010, 5.2 million Californians were registered as Republicans (30.8%). By June, 2018 the number had dropped to 4.8 million (25.4%). The number of Republicans has held steady since but because more voters have registered, the percentage has dropped by another 1.8% in just the last 16 months.

Where the numbers get really wild is in preregistration of 16 and 17-year-olds. The state of California allows young people to sign up to vote before their 18th birthday and automatically become eligible voters the day they turn 18. Some 156,000 are preregistered currently with 39.8% choosing to become Democrats and 13.4% choosing the Republicans. Many of these will be voting next November.

The seven California US House districts that Democrats flipped one year ago have improved their percentages of registered Democrats. In four of them, Democrats have clearly become the dominant party, as least as far as registration, according to a story by John Myers of the LA Times.

www.latimes.com/…

As hinted at earlier, many of the comparisons to this same point in the 2016 election calendar show even larger GOP voter registration erosion in California battleground districts and even some downsizing in relatively safe Republican seats.
In the Sierra Nevada foothills of the state’s 4th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove), Republicans have gone from a 15.5-point registration advantage in 2016 to a 12.2-point advantage. In the Central Valley district of Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), the GOP lead in voter registration over four years has been cut almost in half, with now only a 7-percentage point advantage over Democrats. A similar trend can be seen next door in the district of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield).

With one year to go and with Donald Trump as their leader, things are likely to get even worse for California Republicans.