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Louisiana Gov. Runoff: Early Vote Is Heavy

Early voting for Louisiana’s runoff elections which includes the governorship is running stronger in the first three days than a comparable period for the primary and is even running a little ahead of early voting for the 2016 Presidential election.

Democrat Governor John Bel Edwards is running for re-election but came up short of 50% in the October 12th primary so he is facing Republican Eddie Rispone in the November 16th runoff. Edwards got 46.6% of the vote and Rispone received 27.4%, but the combined vote of the three Republicans in the primary totaled 51.8%. However, there is no guarantee that all Republicans will now vote for Rispone or even bother to vote at all.

The early vote total is at 230,896 versus 164,843 in the October 2019 primary for a comparable period.

John Couvillon @WinWithJMC 

LOUISIANA 2019 EARLY VOTING, DAY 3: Turnout remained strong. To illustrate (Day 3/Cumulative) – note how EVing STILL outpacing the Pres EV after three days:

   Election                    (Day 3 early voting/ and cumulative early voting)

(2019 runoff)              66816/230896

(2016 President)        66068/228865

(2019 primary)           42686/164834

(2015 runoff)              38141/119381

John Couvillion attributes the strong early vote to Republicans being fired up over impeachment and the realization by both sides that the race is likely to be close. Additional figures posted by Couvillion show that African American voters are making up a larger percentage of the early voter than they did in the primary, 29.5% (so far) as compared to 24% in the primary a month ago.

Black turnout as % of the total EV remained strong (but, as expected, is slipping). Below are the cumulative (day 1+2+3) numbers:

(2019 runoff) 68-29.5 white/black (74-24 in primary)

(2015 runoff) 69-29 white/black

(2016 President) 71-26 white/black

Also somewhat favorable for Edwards is the partisan breakdown of the first 3 days of early voting. That has been 46% registered Democrats to 39.5% Republican. In the primary where there were two strong Republican candidates, it was 44% Democratic to 42% Republican. Of course some people register as Democrats even though they vote Republican. 

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Recent polls show a close race, but Edwards has a slight edge in most.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

Primary results:

ballotpedia.org/…

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