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Another Saturday Night and I Ain't Got Nobody but this ABC/Wash Post Poll on the Race.

New Gallup data shows a possible path to victory for Bernie Sanders

I’m up, and I saw this ABC/Washington Post poll on the Democratic race for president.  Let’s get to the meat of it.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders health poses a concern to Democrats, former Vice President Joe Biden prevails on electability and strong leadership and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is competitive on mental acuity and bringing “needed change” to Washington – attributes that may help shape their party’s presidential contest.

These three continue to lead current preferences for the Democratic presidential nomination, with 27% support for Biden, 21% for Warren and 19% for Sanders among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Now, before we go much further, here is the methodology:

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 27-30, 2019, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 5.5 points, including the design effect, for the sample of 452 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents covered in this report. Partisan divisions in the full sample are 29-23-38%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

Pretty damn big margin of sampling error if you ask me.

How do the rest line up?  For those who want to see the chart I can’t place in here, feel free to use this link.

According to this article, this is the best showing for Warren in this poll for the last several months.  Seems like Biden and Sanders have remained stable.  Buttigieg has moved up to 7%, but Harris is down to 2%.

The more interesting part of this poll is who are the second choices of this group.  

Who might their second choices be? Current Biden supporters divide chiefly between Sanders(31 percent) and Warren (26 percent) as their fallback preference, with 8 percent apiece for Harris and Amy Klobuchar and 7 percent for Buttigieg. Warren voters go more for Sanders (36 percent) than Biden (17 percent) as their second choice, with 11 percent each for Harris and Buttigieg and 6 percent for Julián Castro. Among all leaned Democrats who support someone other than Biden or Warren, second choice preferences divide between Biden, 24 percent and Warren, 23 percent, with all others in the single digits.

It’s only one poll, so I would wait on others like it before saying anything definitive.  It appears, for now, that this looks like Buttigieg will not necessarily pick up the lionshare of Biden’s voters if he fumbles.  I’m not sure if this is really accurate though.  It certainly doesn’t seem accurate from the IA polls, at least if I have read them properly.  I assumed there that Buttigieg’s growth came from Biden.

There are other parts to this poll about diving into the “attributes” of the candidates.  

Anyway, feel free to look at the results and mark it down as another data point.