According to Tiger Beat, the Biden campaign is building a Super Tuesday fortress strategy. There are far more delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday than in the first four contests (1300 delegates Vs. 155). A number of the states on Super Tuesday have high concentrations of black and more moderate voters, so Biden is banking on cleaning up in those contests. The exception to this theory is California I believe.
I may be very ignorant of California politics, but I am betting the voters there are more liberal than in my neck of the woods (Kentucky).
Anyway, the other reason for this Super Tuesday Fortress strategy is…Well, I will let Biden’s campaign tell you:
The Super Tuesday focus also serves as an insurance policy against Warren, in particular, since her appeal to white, liberal voters could mean strong finishes in places like Iowa and New Hampshire — which, in turn, could propel her momentum through Nevada and South Carolina and into the next stage of the primary.
Hmmmmm. You should always have a back up plan, but this goes along with previous reports that Biden’s campaign is not counting on an Iowa victory. Nor it seems a New Hampshire one either. Not sure about Nevada, but I know that Biden supporters believe that Biden will win South Carolina handily with his popularity among black voters. At least, that is what everyone keeps telling me.
And while not speaking “she who must not be named,” the Biden campaign thinks that it will be a two person race after South Carolina.
Central to the Biden campaign’s theory is the belief that, after the Feb. 29 primary in South Carolina, the now-sprawling Democratic field would be narrowed to just two candidates. And one of them — Biden — would be far better positioned to amass delegates on a primary date that offers a windfall of roughly 1,300…
But they repeatedly stressed that Biden’s advantage is with a “broad, diverse” coalition of voters. Implicit is the idea that the South could be tough terrain for Warren and her liberal brand of politics.
While the Massachusetts senator is broadening her base of support — including with African Americans — Biden still enjoys wide leads over her in South Carolina and Texas polls. According to the most recent Quinnipiac national poll, Biden had a 40%-19% lead among African-Americans.
I don’t know if it will be Biden and Warren in that two person race. In fact, I am not sold on the idea that it will be a two person race then. Given Bernie Sanders campaign haul this quarter and his tenacity, I don’t think that Bernie will bow out.
Now, Biden supporters will love that Bernie stays in the contest. Everyone assumes that Warren and Bernie are splitting the progressive vote, and it opens up a lane for a moderate candidate like Biden. However, I’m not sure that is an accurate read either.
If that Quinnipiac poll cited is accurate, Warren is gettting some traction with black voters. And most of the black voters have been for Biden not Bernie. And RCP is showing that Warren is rising while Biden is slipping. No other candidates polling is changing, so it appears, for now, that Warren is taking away some Biden voters. More polling will tell if this is a real shift.
Will this Biden strategy pan out? Shrugs. History is not kind to this type of political electoral strategy. I am old enough to remember that Super Tuesday was created to get a more moderate Southern candidate a chance to win the nomination. Since that has happened, only two moderate Southern candidates have gotten the nomination — Bill Clinton and later Al Gore. The other moderate to win was a guy from Illinois by the name of Barack Obama. The other candidates were from the more progessive side of the spectrum.
Time will tell.