Republican Congressman Paul Cook of Yucca Valley, California announced today he will not seek re-election as congressman for California’s 8th US House district but will instead run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors.
Republicans hold a lead of 4 percentage points in voter registration in the district, which stretches from Mono County to San Bernardino County along the Nevada border. But despite Democrats’ recent interest in making inroads in the district, it’s been long known as a deeply conservative area. President Trump beat Hillary Clinton there by more than 15 percentage points, besting Mitt Romney’s 2012 margin in the district, and Cook won his last reelection fight against a fellow Republican with 60% of the vote.
Cook’s Political Ratings has the district as R +9%. In a presidential election year and without an incumbent the district might get a major Democratic challenger, and California’s jungle primary voting can produce interesting results.
The demographics of the district are 50% white, 35% Hispanic, 8% black, and 4% Asian.
| AL CD-1 | Byrne | Running for Senate | Safe R | |
| AL CD-2 | Roby | Retiring, criticized Trump | Safe R | |
| CA CD-8 | Cook | Running for county board | ||
| GA CD-7 | Woodall | Retiring, “time for change”, district diversifying | Tossup | |
| IL CD-15 | Shimkus | Retiring, “for family” | Safe R | |
| IN CD-5 | Brooks | Retiring, “for family” | Lean R | |
| MI CD-10 | Mitchell | Retiring, “for family” | Safe R | |
| MT CD-All | Gianforte | Running for Gov. | Likely R | |
| TX CD-11 | Conaway | Retiring, lost chairmanship | Safe R | |
| TX CD-17 | Flores | Retiring, “for family, etc.” | Safe R | |
| TX CD-22 | Olson | Retiring, “for family”, district diversifying | Tossup | |
| TX CD-23 | Hurd | Retiring, criticized Trump, swing district | Lean D | |
| TX CD-24 | Marchant | Retiring, district diversifying | Tossup | |
| UT CD-1 | Bishop | Retiring, lost chairmanship | Safe R | |
| WI CD-5 | Sensenbrenner | Retiring, 76 years old | Safe R | |
| WI CD-7 | Duffy | Resigned, family reasons | Likely R |