Yes, I know that progressives should not be acting like accountants and worrying about money and fundraising, but we live in a corrupt campaign finance system. In order to compete, Democrats of all stripes have to raise campaign cash, if only to fund a GOTV and ground game. And it is one of the important barometers of whether or not a candidate is doing “well.” I won’t get into the debate of the sources of the candidates campaign contributions, at least not in this diary. But given how some of the candidates are performing when it comes to fundraising, it may mean that our huge field will start to dwindle even before one real vote is cast in a caucus or primary.
I don’t make the rules.
Anyway, it appears that there is a top five with regards to campaign fundraising. Yeah, can you guess who they are? Lots of sacrasm there: Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, and Harris.
The other candidates are not doing as well. Shit. Let’s be honest. Some of them are not long for this political world.
I’ll just go to what Vox reported:
Everybody else is in trouble
Eighteen other candidates in the race reported their fundraising numbers, and, well, they’re not as good. Here are the ranges (keeping in mind that Harris’s $11.8 million was the next highest result above Cory Booker’s):
- $4.5 million: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- $3 to 4 million: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
- $2 to 3 million: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former HUD Secretary Julián Castro, businessman Andrew Yang, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
- $1 to 2 million: Author Marianne Williamson, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
- Less than $1 million: Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam
- Loaned himself $7.75 million: Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney
- Didn’t start fundraising: Former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, billionaire Tom Steyer
I really do not know why Joe Sestak jumped into this race. It’s not like we didn’t already have enough older white men running.
Tom Steyer can stay in this race as long as he wants with his self funding. The same could almost be said of Delaney (I believe he is worth $100 million dollars), but I think he was at a 0% in the latest polling. And his message is not resonating with Democrats.
Ryan and those other $1 million dollar men are very likely to not make it to Iowa because they do not have deep pockets like Delaney or Styer. And except for Ryan, none have been in one televised debate. Ryan has this shtick where he is the guy who can get the forgotten voters in the Midwest, so he will be able to get interviews on Morning Joe and Hardball on MSNBC.
Oh yeah. That is Biden’s principle argument. Pretty sure that Biden will be around longer than Ryan.
Bill de Blasio is not going anywhere. Ego lead him to jump into this race. But as Mayor of New York, he will probably continue to get interviews and some media attention. But he will not have money for a ground game in the early voting states.
I know there are a few on Daily Kos who like Williamson, but she is not a serious candidate. Once she no longer ends up on a debate stage, any mention of her will fade. Once again, does she have the money for an organization in the early voting states? I don’t know, but I doubt it.
One of my favorite “Bash the Democratic Party for Being Too Far Left” Democrats is clearly circling the drain — John Hickenlooper. I won’t miss him when he is gone. He can always get a gig on Fox.
Moultan and Gabbard are not gaining any traction. And I don’t think that Moultan will make the next debate either. If you don’t make the debates, you don’t get media attention and improve your fundraising. And if you can’t raise your profile, it becomes a downward cycle.
Therefore, my guesstimate would be that the field will contract by at least nine. I don’t know when that will be exactly, but it will probably happen before Iowa.
I don’t know how the others will do. A few may get a moment like Harris did and may improve their standing. I know that people like Tweety Bird Matthews are trying to resusitate Bullock’s campaign. He was doing that tonight on MSNBC.
The one that really sticks out for flaming out is — drum roll please — Beto O’Rourke.
O’Rourke is hanging on, but he had a lot of buzz because of his run against Cruz in TX. I admit that I sent him a lot of money for that race. But his trajectory has been downward.