Henry Olsen at National Review has both a serious and humorous take on tomorrow’s election — first the fun part:
“Conservatives love animals, but there is one species they have long wanted to make extinct: the RINO. Not the horned African rhino, mind you, but rather the hoity-toity political RINO — Republicans in Name Only. Movement types have long been enraged by RINOs’ cool attitude toward tax cutting and social conservatism and their willingness to cooperate with, and occasionally vote for, Democrats. Hunting RINO officeholders during primary season has been the Club for Growth’s primary mission for years, and together with activist muscle, the group has successfully pushed the party to the right.
It turns out, however, that poaching RINO legislators is not enough to drive RINOs to extinction. Conservatives have long thought that RINOs’ native environment was the lobby room and the fundraising circuit — that they drew their sustenance from the insiders, not the folks back home. But it turns out that the RINOs were living off the land the whole time, the McMansion-land of upper-income suburbia. Millions of voters there were in fact RINOs too, and picking off their representatives did not do a thing to change their minds about the issues. They like “go slow” Republicanism and do not believe that things in America are bad enough on any level to warrant radical, significant change.
Trump’s message was that America was a sinking ship, one that needed a radical change of course, and fast. Add his volatile and voluble personality to the mix and you can see why RINOs did not want to take a cruise on the SS GOP with Trump as its captain. But Trump won despite their defection.
Tuesday, however, is going to be the RINOs’ revenge. Romney-loving RINOs are coming out of their preserves with fire in their hearts and a gleam in their eyes. They are decked out in hunting gear of their own, and their prey is the Trump-backing, change-seeking GOP. They might not be able to win primaries anymore, but in league with their new friends, the Democrats, they are eager to take down some big game of their own. And they will.
The new Democrat–RINO alliance is going to retake the House, sweep the GOP out of governor’s mansions in most purple states, and end the careers of hundreds of suburban state legislators. In the Senate, it will most likely hold Republicans to a one- or two-seat gain despite an incredibly favorable map — and may even win the Democrats a seat. Come Wednesday, the RINOs will mount their trophies on their walls and resolve to continue the hunt until the big game is caught: the orange-plumed woodpecker from Queens.”
Now the serious part…
Olsen predicts Dems will take the majority in the house 226-209, a gain of 32 seats. I won’t argue with him here, and would be happy with that result, but think it could be as much as 40 net.
In the Senate Olsen predicts the Rs will gain one, ceding Nevada and Arizona to we good guys, while tossing Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana to the no good at all guys. I personally think with Medical Marihootchi and minimum wage issues on the ballot, and with the memory and organizational effort of the right to work fight last August still fresh on voters’ minds, McCaskill will eke out a win here in Missouri. 538 is bullish on Donnelly in Indiana (70% chance of winning) so I am holding out for at least keeping Mike Pence very busy in the next two years. Beto — or a miracle for Heitkamp– would make for some very happy DKosers.
Olsen also has Dems gaining nine Governorships – picking Gillum and dissing Abrams. I think we may have to wait until December on Geogia.
All in all I give Henry credit for an entertaining and mostly hopeful read which you should check out… if you don’t mind click cooties.
But will disagree with him one last time:
…“orange-plumed woodpecker from Queens.” should read “orange-plumed peckerwood from Queens.”