I have time to kill, so I thought I would do some number crunching from Tennessee’s early voting turnout and compare it to 2014 and 2016 Elections.
On Friday, the Secretary of State's office announced 1,378,840 people had voted early, just 50,000 fewer than the total in the last midterm.
In 2014, according to the Tennessee SOS, 1,430,117 voters turned out for that election. It was just shy of a 36% voter turnout. Early voting in that year was 42.99% of the total voter turnout or 614,000 voters came out early (roughly).
In 2016, 2,545,271 voters turned out for that election. It was a turnout of 61.92%. Early voting accounted for 63.87% of this total or 1,625,000 people came out to vote early (roughly).
Yes, you cannot compare directly from a presidential to a midterm, or you shouldn’t at least. Therefore, I will keep it to the 2014 early voting turnout. They have had 764,000 more voters show up early in this midterm than the last.
Can we project from this? I do not know, and neither does the Tennessee SOS. IF we assume a more presidential turnout year, say 63% of voters turned up to vote early, then Tenneesse may get up to approximately 2.2 million voters. I do not think you can use an approximately 43% turnout for a midterm because that would mean at least 3 million voters show up, and Tennessee averages around 2.5 million voters during a presidential election.