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OH-Gov: Emerson Poll Has Cordray (D) Beating DeWine (R) 49-46, Baldwin Wallace Has The Race Tied

A pair of polls out of Ohio give us a view of Governor’s race in Ohio. First, there’s Emerson’s latest poll:

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In Ohio, US Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is at 49% with Jim Renacci (R) at 43%. Females are breaking for Brown 54% to 37% while males are breaking for Renacci 49% to 43%. In the Governor race, Richard Cordray (D) is at 49% and Mike DeWine (R) is at 46%, but females are breaking for Cordray 52% to 41% while males are breaking for DeWine 51% to 46%.

Ohio US Senate Ballot Test

IVR/Online, LV, 10/26-28, n=566, +/- 4.3%

Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 49%, Jim Renacci (R)  43%

Ohio Governor Ballot Test

Richard Cordray (D) 49%, Mike DeWine (R) 46%, 3% undecided

Name Recognition

Cordray 47% favorable/ 36% unfavorable

DeWine 41% favorable/ 44% unfavorable

Trump 47% favorable/ 49% unfavorable

Click here for the full results.

Next, Baldwin Wallace’s latest poll:

A close Ohio governor's race has tightened to near a dead heat with early voting under way and Election Day only a week away, according to new statewide polling released Tuesday by Baldwin Wallace University.

Republican Mike DeWine holds a 39.4 percent to 38.8 percent lead over Democrat Richard Cordray, according to the latest polling, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Yet, 15.8 percent of the likely voters surveyed said they were still unsure, and another 6 percent supported other candidates – Libertarian Travis Irvine (4.1 percent) and the Green Party's Constance Gadell-Newton (1.9 percent).

Only one Democrat – Ted Strickland in 2006 – has won an Ohio's governor's race over more than a quarter-century.

Republicans notched victories with John Kasich in 2014 and 2010, Bob Taft in 2002 and 1998, and George Voinovich in 1994 and 1990.

Other poll results

The polling also found Democrat U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown maintaining a solid advantage over Republican challenger Jim Renacci, and Democrats leading in races for each of the four other statewide offices, all now controlled by Republicans.

Issue 1, the proposed constitutional amendment to reduce penalties for some drug crimes, holds a narrow lead.

Cordray's support apparently suffers some because four candidates are on the ballot.

When offered just two choices, the poll found Cordray leading DeWine, 42.2 percent to 41.1 percent.

The survey, conducted by BW's Community Research Institute of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 19 through Saturday, found a closing of the gap between the two candidates.

DeWine held a 2.6-point lead in a BW poll released Oct. 8 – 39.7 percent to 37.1 percent for a four-way race.

In just a two-way race now led by Cordray, DeWine led by 3 percentage points in the Oct. 8 poll, and 4.8 points in a poll released Sept. 16.

Brown crushes Renacci 51-31 so Emerson’s numbers on that race are clearly and outlier. On the down-ballot races, Democrats nave narrow advantages:

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  • Attorney General: Democrat Steve Dettelbach leads Republican David Yost, 40.2 percent to 38.9 percent.
  • Ohio Secretary of State: Democrat Kathleen Clyde leads Republican Frank LaRose, 39.8 percent to 33.7 percent.
  • Auditor: Democrat Zack Space leads Republican Keith Faber, 40.2 percent to 32 percent.
  • Treasurer: Democrat Rob Richardson leads Republican Robert Sprague, 38.8 percent to 36 percent.

Ohio Republicans are getting nervous about this race and look who finally decided to jump in and help DeWine:

After months of watching from the outside of the campaign for the Ohio governor's race, Republican Gov. John Kasich is finally hitting the trail for GOP Attorney General Mike DeWine.

The governor will headline a get-out-the-vote rally with DeWine on Friday in Columbus, his first appearance for any statewide Republican candidate this cycle.

“He's always been for Mike DeWine and believes he will make the best Governor,” said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for Kasich. “Now is the time that Governor Kasich can make the most positive impact.”

Republican candidates have generally avoided Kasich this cycle – including DeWine – instead choosing to align themselves with President Donald Trump, who Kasich has frequently opposed since the 2016 presidential election. For his part, the governor has seemed more preoccupied with his national profile – and possibly another presidential run in 2020.

Polling has shown Kasich is still fairly popular for a second-term governor, consistently posting public approval ratings of higher than 50 percent. But the Republican Party's decision to shift to Trump's brand of politics effectively alienated Kasich from the party infrastructure he helped build in the state.

But Cordray has bigger names on the campaign trail helping him get out the vote:

If nothing else, Joe Biden says he has learned at least one thing about the man he believes should be Ohio’s next governor.

“One thing you have to know about this guy, he’s smarter than you. After that, it all goes uphill from there,” Biden said of fellow Democrat Richard Cordray on Monday as they talked with Ohio State University students in a surprise retail politics stop at Sloopy’s Diner in the Ohio Union.

“He did one hell of a job,” the former vice president said of fellow Democrat Richard Cordray’s service as director of of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under appointment by President Barack Obama.

Biden was greeted by many of the Ohio State students as if he were a rock star. Biden dropped by the Union prior to a Columbus fund-raiser for Cordray’s campaign and a late-afternoon rally in Youngstown on Monday. “You gotta vote,” Biden kept telling his audience with the election but eight days away.

The potential 2020 presidential candidate posed for numerous selfies with smiling Ohio State students and the kitchen staff, even grabbing a student’s phone at one point to tell her caller: “You’ve got to promise me you’re going to vote for Cordray for governor.”

Biden was in no hurry. And he continually referred to Cordray as “governor.” After buying two chocolate-and-whipped-cream concoctions for himself and Cordray, and throwing down a $20 tip, the ice-cream lover grabbed a stool at the counter and talked with a throng of students for about 15 minutes before taking a few questions from reporters.

The momentum is there but we have to make sure our base comes out and vote. Click below to get involved with Cordray, Brown and their fellow Ohio Democrats campaigns:

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Sherrod Brown for Senate

Richard Cordray for Governor

Danny O’Connor (D. OH-12)

ORDER NOW

Aftab Purveal (D. OH-01)

Betsy Rader (D. OH-14)

Rick Neal (D. OH-15)

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Kathleen Clyde for Secretary of State

Zack Space for Auditor

Rob Richardson for Treasurer

Steve Dettelbach for Attorney General

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