Big news today out of Arizona courtesy of NBC/Marist’s latest poll:
Fueled by advantages among Latinos, independents and women, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 6-point lead over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s key Senate contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state.
Sinema, a Democratic congresswoman, gets support from 50 percent of likely voters, while McSally, a GOP congresswoman, gets 44 percent. A combined 6 percent are undecided or prefer someone else.In September’s NBC/Marist poll, Sinema’s lead over McSally was 3 points in this head-to-head contest, 48 percent to 45 percent.
When the ballot expands to include the Green Party’s Angela Green, Sinema’s edge is cut to 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent — essentially unchanged from Sinema’s 2-point advantage in September, 45 percent to 43 percent.
Forty-four percent of these voters say they have already cast their ballots, and Sinema receives support from 51 percent of them to McSally’s 47 percent.
Sinema’s leads — in both the head-to-head matchup and the three-way ballot — fall inside the poll’s margin of error.
“Arizona may play a pivotal role in determining the makeup of the next Senate,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted this survey. “Right now, the contest is very competitive.”
In the head-to-head contest, Sinema holds the advantage with Latinos (69 percent to 22 percent), Independents (58 percent to 32 percent) and women (54 percent to 41 percent).
McSally, meanwhile, leads among whites (51 percent to 45 percent) and men (48 percent to 47 percent).
The NBC/Marist poll — conducted October 23-27 — comes after a vicious back-and-forth between the candidates, with McSally and Republicans seizing on Sinema’s past comments criticizing politics in Arizona, and with Sinema and Democrats charging McSally of “lying” on health care and other matters.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters say they have a positive view of Sinema, while 42 percent see her in an unfavorable light (+6), though that’s down from +13 in September.
That’s compared with McSally’s 43 percent positive/45 percent negative rating (-2), which is largely unchanged from last month.
Let’s keep up the momentum and have the Blue Wave hit Arizona big time. Click below to get involved with Sinema and her fellow Arizona Democrats campaigns: