MT-Sen: New Gravis Poll Has Sen. Jon Tester (D) Leading Matt Rosendale (R) 49-45

Some good news today out of Montana courtesy of Gravis Marketing’s latest poll:

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is leading his Republican opponent Matt Rosendale by 4 points in his Senate reelection bid in Montana, according to a poll released Tuesday.

A new Gravis Marketing survey found Tester ahead of Rosendale, 49 to 45 percent, just outside of the poll’s margin of error. Six percent of likely voters in Montana remain undecided.

In the poll, Tester is leading Rosendale by double digits among independent voters, 55 to 34.3 percent. Tester also holds double-digit edges with female voters and young voters between the ages of 18 and 29.

Rosendale, Montana's state auditor, has a 10-point advantage with male voters as well as slim leads among voters between the ages of 50 and 64 and those who are 65 and older.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 19 to 22 and surveyed 710 likely voters in Montana. The margin of error was 3.7 percentage points.

Rosendale’s strategy has been to hug Trump the entire time but that’s not the most effective strategy:

After Tester stepped away from the TV cameras, Jim Henningfield approached him and asked him a couple of questions about the Veterans Administration. After their brief, friendly exchange I asked Henningfield about his politics, like whether he’d ever voted for President Obama.

“Hell no,” he said.

Henningfield voted for President Trump. He likes to listen to Mark Levin on Fox News Radio, and says he’s disgusted by the things he hears from some Democrats in Congress like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Maxine Waters.

“There’s some ghosts in her closet I’d like to be able unravel,” Henningfield said. “I did hear something about a bailout of a bank or something, I don’t know if it’s true or not, I don’t care right now, but her actions say who she really is. You know, Chuck Schumer, ‘we’re gonna get him 7 ways from Sunday,’ it means you don’t belong there anymore. You’re not helping America, you’re not helping the people of the United States. Go away.”

In a state that President Trump won by 20 points, it would be easy to conclude that guys like Jim Henningfield are a slam dunk to vote for Republican Senate Candidate Matt Rosendale. Not so fast.

“No, because I voted for Governor Bullock,” Henningfield said. “I voted for our last governor, Schweitzer. I thought it was a good thing, and it seemed to work out.”

And, he’s voted for Tester before. So, has he decided he’s going to vote to re-elect Tester?

“Nope, not yet,” he said. “I’m a fence sitter, I won’t know until I make that mark in the ballot.”

And Tester has continued to champion the cause of getting dark money out of politics:

Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Monday announced an effort to force a Senate vote on IRS guidance that reduces donor disclosure requirements for certain tax-exempt groups.

The senators introduced a resolution to overturn the guidance under the Congressional Review Act. They argued that undoing the guidance is necessary to prevent the erosion of transparency in politics.

“We must crack down on the dark money flooding our political system, that’s why we are taking an aggressive approach and introducing this legislation to protect our democracy and hold special interests accountable with transparency,” Tester, who is up for reelection this year in a state Trump won, said in a statement.

Under the IRS guidance, issued in July, certain tax-exempt groups no longer are required to disclose to the agency the names and addresses of significant donors on annual forms. Groups that would no longer have to disclose this donor information include social-welfare organizations such as the National Rifle Association and the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity.

Republicans cheered the guidance, saying it will help to prevent the IRS from targeting taxpayers for their political beliefs. But Democrats have blasted the guidance, arguing that it will lead to more secrecy around “dark money” groups and could make it easier for foreign governments to interfere in U.S. elections.

Let’s make sure the Blue Wave hits Montana. Click below to donate and get involved Tester and his fellow Montana Democrats’ campaigns:

Jon Tester for Senate

Kathleen Williams for Congress