What i mean by my title is that we do not yet know the final results, although I am prepared to argue that the Presidential race is pretty well baked.
Election day is 4 weeks from tomorrow, by which time perhaps 40% of the votes will be cast. Already states are voting, and how people feel about the race can often make a difference in how they vote.
So where, as of 3:30 EDT did the aggregators and models find themselves?
As you may expect, with recent national and state polls in showing widening margins for Clinton, including the WSJ/NBC poll taken AFTER the Access Hollywood tape story broke on Friday, basically everyone is showing movement in Clinton’s direction.
The Real Clear Politics national average in the head to head is up to 5.8%
Pollster.com showed a 48.1-41.8, or 6.3% margin
Our own Daily Kos is up to 94% probability for CLinton, with 324 EVs in her favor
PredictWise is now at 88% for Clinton.
Huffington Post is at 88%.
Princeton Election Consortium Baysesian model is up to 96%, meta margin 4.0, and 326 electoral votes.
Five Thirty Eight Polls Plus 79.8%
Polls only 83.6
Now Cast 8.7.7% with 358 EVS (2012 states + NC + AZ)
Upshot Blog has it 86%
their consensus break of states for Clinton is now at 263 electoral votes
addit states. WI (10) 85% 273
FL (29) 71 302
NV (6) 70 308
NC (15) 85 323
OH (18) 62 341
they still have IA leaning R.
So what does this all mean?