some key takeaways from Democracy Corps Poll that is Clinton 50-38 | THE POLITICUS

some key takeaways from Democracy Corps Poll that is Clinton 50-38

and which can be read in this PDF.

Taken October 21-24.  900 respondents.   +/- 3.27%.  65% contact by cell phone, to match national data.

Some splits on the votes, with Clinton numbers always first, first five are Trump target groups, next five Clinton target groups

Independents             36-37

Seniors                        46-48

Men                             43-43

White College Men    41-42

White Non-Coll Men  31-57


Women                        56-33

Unmarried Women    59-31

White Coll Women     56-31

Millennials                   59-20

Suburban                    54-36

Johnson drawing 5, mainly anti-Trump Republicans, with only 39% of them strongly interested and the rest less likely to vote.

Stein drawing 2, largely Democrats.

A couple of additional data points.  

Trump 60 percent unfavorable, net -28.

Republican Party net -23 on favorability, with over 50% unfavorable.

House Republicans -31 unfavorable.

For point of comparison, Romney won white working class men 65-32, by a margin of 33.  Trump’s 57-31 is at +26 not an improvement, and clearly no where enough to make up for his loss among other Demographics.

Several other comments.

1.  This is 2nd poll in the past few days showing both a 12 point margin in the 4-way and Clinton at 50%.

2.   What internals there are in the press release provide a possible argument and plan for how to make a serious run from the House.  This should be assisted by Obama’s recent spate of endorsements and advertising support of Democratic House candidates.

Remember, this is a Democratic poll, and they were only rated in the B’s by Nate Silver.  That said, it is strongly supportive that regardless of top lines there has been no evidence in any credible poll of a tightening and a fair amount of evidence that the margin may be expanding.  This particular poll was very accurate in 2012.

There is also evidence that a significant portion of voters are no longer persuadable.  For more on this, you might want to look at this post by Nate Silver.

Make of all this what you will.  Me?  I take it as further confirmation is the only question left in the Presidential is the size of Clinton’s popular vote margin and how many electoral votes she will get.

Oh and btw, there is a poll out from SD which now had the margin in that state down to single digits.  Go figure.

From the analysis by Stan Greenberg and James Carville:


There is a chance to translate Clinton's emerging landslide into a wave down-ballot.  In a simulated contest where the Republican congressional candidate argues they are needed as an independent check on Clinton, the Democrats move into a 9-point lead in the congressional match — up after the Republican is attacked.

They also find strong support for the economic message as Clinton is presenting it, with the possibility of therefore further consolidation of support.