Predictors trending up as post debate polls come in | THE POLITICUS

Predictors trending up as post debate polls come in

Just took a look over at Who Will Be President at the New York Times Upshot blog.

Several days ago Clinton’s odds were 70%.  This morning they are up to 74%

Their state by state percentages are also changing, and here are the current key numbers:

FL   60

NV  57

NC  51

OH 48

that means NC has flipped marginally back to our side, and OH is moving in our direction.

At Huffington Post Pollster Clinton’s margin is now 48-43, up a point from several days ago.  Their last run, which includes the new PPP VoteVets state polls, has Clinton up in FL by 2, CO by 4, VA by 6, NH by 5, down by 3 IA, and tied in NC, NV, and OH.

As of this morning, Nate Silver’s three models are as follows

Polls Plus  60.7

Polls Only 62.2

Now Cast  69.3

  all three of which should moderate recent improvement

Daily Kos is now at 68%

RCP average margin is now 2.9.  While this is up from less than 2 several days ago, it is also slightly down from yesterday, where it was higher than 3.  In part this is due to inclusion of the abysmal LA Times /USC tracking poll, which has Trump +5 nationally.

There will be more state and national polls post debate out today and perhaps through the weekend.  Best expectations are that the recent trend will continue.  Nationally the “bump” from the debate within individual polls seems to be around a net 4, although that could change.  It varies state to state.

Several things for which to keep out an eye.

Nate Cohn tweeted yesterday that October Surprises could begin on Saturday.  When pushed by several responses to give some hint, he did not.  Given that his area is polling, one suspects he has seen some partial results from multi-day polls that if confirmed could have a major impact upon our understanding of the race.

Cohn has also tweeted that in conjunction with the debate there has been a real surge in interest in registration among Latinos.

And as I will post elsewhere if not already done, new poll by WBUR has Clinton upt 42-35 in New Hampshire.