Observations from new Atlantic/PRRI poll - Clinton +11, Likely Voters! | THE POLITICUS

Observations from new Atlantic/PRRI poll - Clinton +11, Likely Voters!

You can read the relevant article by Robert Jones here.

I won’t attempt to reproduce graphics, to save time getting this up.

This poll was taken Oct 5-9.  The two previous iterations were Sept 22-25, where the candidates were tied at 42, Sept 28-Oct2, where Clinton lead 47-41, and current iteration which is 49-38.  All were taken among likely voters.

What you are seeing is Clinton +7 and Trump -4 over about a 3 week period.  If you look at the graphics you will note that the lines had a pretty consistent slope.  Note also that the recent iteration is only partly over the period of time when knowledge about the Access Hollywood tape was available.  It was also taken BEFORE the debate on Sunday.  According to the notes, 44% of interviews were taken after the story had broken (but that does not mean that all of that 44% had seen/heard/absorbed the material).

Overall, Trump leads among Whites, but only by 47-43.  But break it up by education:

  College educated —  53-37 Clinton

  non-college           —  52-31 Trump

If Trump loses college educated whites at all, he will get slaughtered.

By Gender:

Females  61-28    +33% for Clinton

Males      37-48    +11 for Trump

  BUT REMEMBER  electorate will be 53-47 or 54-46 female to male, based on recent trends

From a trend perspective, Trump dropped in one week 5% among women and 1% among men — and only two days of this latest poll included knowledge of the tape.

BY RELIGION

White Evangelicals   Trump by 65-16

White Mainline Protestants (eg Episcopalians, Methodists, etc)   42-42 split

White Catholics   Clinton 46-42   

All Catholics   Clinton 55-34       and remember, this is despite Clinton being strongly pro-Choice

Religiously unaffiliated  Clinton by a massive 70-20

Independents:

Clinton leads 44-33  +11

  BUT NOTE this represents a one-week shift of Clinton +8 and Trump -3

OBSERVATIONS —  what is clear is that after the first debate there was already a fairly strong shift in direction of Clinton, something that, based on the polling we have taken only after the tape, was strongly reinforced.   We will be starting to get polls that will reflect reactions to the debate. 

Despite what some talking heads will say, I do NOT think Trump will have stemmed his slide by his debate performance.  Yes, he did appeal to his base.  But, most people think Clinton won the debate, women overwhelmingly so, and both what he said, his manner, and most of all his lurking, will have served to further alienate women and I would suggest both independents and college -educated men.

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