New Q national poll Clinton 45 - Trump 40 up 4 in margin UPDATED | THE POLITICUS

New Q national poll Clinton 45 - Trump 40 up 4 in margin UPDATED

as you can read in

As you can see from , this represents a 4 point increase in the margin since the September 26 release of the Q national poll.

That margin is in the 4-way.  Head to head it expands to 50-44, an increase from what was also a 1 point margin.

In the four-way race, women back Clinton 53 - 33 percent as men back Trump 49 - 37 percent. White voters go Republican 51 - 38 percent while non-white voters go Democratic 63 - 18 percent.

The biggest shift is among independent voters, who go from 42 - 35 percent for Trump, with 15 percent for Johnson September 26 to 46 - 32 percent for Clinton, with 10 percent for Johnson today. Republicans back Trump 87 - 5 percent while Democrats back Clinton 89 - 3 percent.

American likely voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton over Trump 48 - 27 percent, with 11 percent for Johnson. Clinton leads 47 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 49 years old. Voters 50 to 64 years old go 48 percent for Trump and 43 percent for Clinton. Voters over 65 years old are split 46 - 46 percent.

Some details on the poll

1,064 likely voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

  White 68%
  Black  12
  Hispanic 11
  Other/DK/NA 9
GENDER  M48  F52  (that may be low —  could well be 46-54)
34% of sample is Whites with a college degree
33% Whites w/o college degree
    (there is a rounding issue, which is why not 68%)
I did NOT see crosstabs
Commentary —  this matches what we are seeing in other public polling data.  I expect this trend to be continuing, in part because there is a HUGE amount of of political chatter about what is being seen in private polling done for both presidential campaigns and a lot of the Senate campaigns.

UPDATE   can now provide some explanation, thanks in part to the work of others:


So, that has some cross-tabs on voter preference:

Clinton #s first

Whites w/college degree   50-45

whites w/o degree             32-63

WHite men                          33-63

White women                     48-46

Whites overall                    41-54

Non Whites                        73-21