How YouGov views the race, nationally and by states | THE POLITICUS

How YouGov views the race, nationally and by states

as one can see at this map, last update after factoring in the latest sample yesterday yesterday.  Listing always Clinton#s first:

National +4     47.8-43.9   resulting in 334 electoral votes

VA +8   49.8-42.3

MI +5    48.2-43.3

CO +5   47.7-42.9

NH +4   47.8-44.0

WI +3    47.7-44.4

NC +2   47.4-44.9

FL +2    47.9-45.9

PA +2    47.2-45.6

NV +2   47.0-45.3

IA +1     45.6-44.1

OH +1   46.5-45.8

GA TIE  46.5-46.7

No other state is leaning or within reach for Dems immediately, although SC is a 6 point margin.

A couple of notes.

First, I am not sure how they are coming up with 334 electoral votes. As I look at the map and the figures, since they show ALL Obama 2012 states as leaning or better Clinton + NC, that should be 347.

Second, they are only pollster I know of showing Clinton ahead, albeit narrowly, in both OH and IA.

Third, the narrowness of the margins in some states should be a bit less of a concern in one sense, since the overall sample size is approximately 36K responses with about 3700 in the previous 24 hours. For any one day, the sample size for individual states will often be very small, but for the span of the poll sufficient to have a restricted margin of error.

Fourth, you can click on any state to get the demographic cross-tabs, although not the split among the different groups.  Thus we see that in OH Clinton is losing Whites to Trump 39-53 but winning Blacks 90-6, Hispanics 62-28, and other 56-33.  In gender she wins women 51-42 and loses men 42-50.

You will also see for the state the movement of each candidate in most recent sample, thus in OH Clinton was up +0.3, Trump down 0.1, Johnson down -.4, and Stein up 0.1.

One takeaway for me —  I would like to see some additional state-level polling to see if anyone else has the same directional movement in IA and OH on behalf of Clinton.  That would be significant.  As of yesterday, the only poll in OH that was recent was the Quinnipiac which had Trump up 5.  But when you looked at Q numbers for PA versus those of other pollsters, they were well below, just as this YouGov poll is well below.

Just another piece of information.


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