Bookies Are Putting Odds On Whether Trump Will Finish His Term, And They Don’t Look Good | THE POLITICUS

Bookies Are Putting Odds On Whether Trump Will Finish His Term, And They Don’t Look Good

Will Donald Trump be impeached? Will he be convicted and thrown out of office, preferably into a prison cell? The mounting evidence against him regarding his connections to Russia, along with mounting evidence that he actively tried to obstruct the FBI’s investigation into those connections beyond firing James Comey, are beginning to point that way, and bookies . Some are placing odds on whether Trump will finish out his entire term, and they’re even placing odds on whether he’ll finish out 2017.

Of course, right now, the chances that he simply won’t finish out his term are greater than the chances he’ll be ousted from the White House by the end of this year. of finishing out his full four-year term. The odds of his leaving office in one way or another will probably grow as his behavior and his misdeeds continue coming to light.

As far as finishing out 2017, Betfair has the odds at 20 to 25 percent against right now. Again, as things continue to mount and calls for impeachment grow louder, these odds will probably grow.

Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight.com, published these odds as part of on his site. He says that one of the reasons predicting Trump’s exit from the White House is really difficult is that there are competing forces at the moment. On the one hand, we have “Trump’s escalating pattern of (alleged) misconduct, which increasingly reflects behavior that has been used as grounds for impeachment in the past.”

But on the other hand, Silver says that “there’s the intense partisan loyalty of Republicans, both among GOP members of Congress and among voters in the states and districts they represent.” That makes impeachment less likely, and the chances of a conviction in the Senate even more remote since that requires a two-thirds majority.

In other words, Republicans would have to start seeing Trump as a major threat to their party and power.

that’s starting to happen, though: Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican from Michigan, said that if the story about Trump trying to pressure James Comey to drop his investigation into Michael Flynn is true, it would warrant impeachment proceedings. Reps. Walter Jones and Carlos Curbelo have said that the memo in which Comey detailed that pressure could serve as justification for impeachment.

When bookies start placing odds on things, though, it’s a good idea to sit up and take notice. They don’t just slap numbers down and hope they’re right. And the dominoes haven’t stopped falling yet.


Featured image by Amos Ben Gershom/GPO via Getty Images

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