As many might remember in July of this year we released the results of our presidential electoral model to predict the results of the 2012 election. As opposed to many predictive models out there (Nate Silver's 538 blog being the best known) that rely on publicly available data up to the day of the election, our model is based mainly on past results and demographic changes in the country. We do not use any polling or factor in who the candidates are.
The model not only performed exceptionally well in predicting the national support Obama would receive (only 1/10 of a point off), but we also predicted the state that would put Obama over the 270 threshold (Colorado). Additionally, when looking at the state by state results, the model was only off by an average of 2.3 percent across all 50 states. However, in the 10 swing states it was only off by .8 percent. 538 was off by .7 percent in the same 10 states. Additionally we were closer to predicting the results in 5 of the 10 states, while 538 was closer on 4 and we tied on one. Read more
With the White House, the Senate, and the House of Reps. all in play heading into Tuesday’s elections, now is the time to get your voting plans in order and to connect with your networks to make sure that everyone else is planning to vote.
Our friends at Fight for the Future (a.k.a. the group behind the SOPA blackout in January) have built a fantastic app that makes it easy for you to set up your own DIY get-out-the-vote operation. It’s called “Vote With Friends,” and it uses the best recent social research into what gets people to vote to help you apply exactly the right kind of friendly nudge to your on-the-fence friends.
Get yourself set up here. Read more
The supporters of Barack Obama and most members of the Democratic Party want our president to lay Mitt Romney out — not literally speaking of course. Most of us I am sure agree that his last performance was a little lackadaisical, even us die-hard Obama fans thought so, which I am.
I would simply like to see this debate be more about character, so viewers can understand what really is behind that smile and that look of concern on Romney’s face. It is a shame that so many voters seem not to understand who Mitt Romney really is, but this debate will give President Obama a chance to do just that.
As far as the president’s character, we all have witnessed that over the last four years and we all can make our own assessment about that at the polls. Mitt Romney on the other hand, people are just now really getting to know him and they have only seen what was well prepared beforehand. Now it is time to reveal the real Mitt Romney. Read more
After Romney came out swingin' and fightin', and Obama seemed to be duckin' and hidin' the Dems turn the next round to Joe Biden. The GOP's high-flyin' on Romney's lyin' and Obama's shy 'n tirin' sighin' but can they keep Dems fryin' with Paul Ryan?
While the polls may tighten, it's no landslidin' so will the right-wing mite continue to frighten or will Obama's VP to the rescue ride in, and the mood he'll lighten spirits heighten?
The Right's rooting to keep Dems cryin' but the left's bidding Biden to be rid of Ryan. Watch the debate and join the discussion with left-leaning friends and liberal libations at your local progressive social club.
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Romney's 47% insult to America was quickly followed by his 14% tax returns and an ever-diminishing percentage in the polls but he says it's still "early" in the race. Ryan's runs for VP like it's a marathon: a long, painful course requiring hard work at which he's mediocre, but claims he's world-class. GOP candidates everywhere are alienating women, youth, gays and non-white Americans, yet argue they represent the real America…or at least the aging white male part of it. Read more
Earlier this year we were proud to be part of a coalition that shocked the corporate political world by organizing unprecedented online protests against internet censorship. Chris Dodd, former senator and the current MPAA Chair, compared the protests to the Arab Spring and said that in his four decades in Washington he had never seen such an effective campaign against a bill. Read more
The point raised by yesterday's Times article on Ron Paul was that while Paul attracts big crowds, these crowds do not translate into voter turnout.
Perhaps the problem is that Paul has appeal within his fervent base, but that base is unable to influence people outside the circle. If Paul can attract thousands to a rally, many more should actually vote for him. Paul himself discusses the problem in the article: Read more
1/14/12 A group of 150 evangelical leaders announced in Texas today their support for Rick Santorum. Read more
1/3/11 Newt Gingrich called Mitt Romney a “liar” this morning. Read more
1/2/12 We’ve been waiting for Rick Santorum to gain traction in Iowa. Read more
Now do not live to retirement by about a third of Russians. Here are paying people pay pension contributions and all in vain. Read more
12/2/11 Herman Cain faces the music today in a sit-down with his wife< Read more
10/13/11 The right wing, which dominates the Republican primary process may be settling on Herman Cain as their best bet to upset establishment favorite Mitt Romney. Read more
Sarah Palin robocalls Virginia Votes (hear audio below) Read more