In the weeks leading up to the 2012 Presidential election it was nearly impossible to not hear the name Nate Silver. His projections of the election came to dominate the news cycle and he himself became the subject of the media zeitgeist. Silver was either lambasted as a charlatan by those who disagreed with his lean towards an Obama win; or he was heralded as a genius by liberals whose fear of a Romney victory he assuaged. This backdrop was the perfect setting to be reading Silver’s first book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t. The narrative in the book described a far different world of projection and probabilistic thinking then what was occurring in the media in the lead up to the election. Read more
As many might remember in July of this year we released the results of our presidential electoral model to predict the results of the 2012 election. As opposed to many predictive models out there (Nate Silver's 538 blog being the best known) that rely on publicly available data up to the day of the election, our model is based mainly on past results and demographic changes in the country. We do not use any polling or factor in who the candidates are.
The model not only performed exceptionally well in predicting the national support Obama would receive (only 1/10 of a point off), but we also predicted the state that would put Obama over the 270 threshold (Colorado). Additionally, when looking at the state by state results, the model was only off by an average of 2.3 percent across all 50 states. However, in the 10 swing states it was only off by .8 percent. 538 was off by .7 percent in the same 10 states. Additionally we were closer to predicting the results in 5 of the 10 states, while 538 was closer on 4 and we tied on one. Read more
Losing an election can be a very bitter pill to swallow. Some Republicans are refusing to accept their loss and instead have begun beating the war drums of vengeance, promising to fight against not only the election results, but against democracy itself and the will of the People.
Donald Trump is a good example, he tweeted a few incendiary comments after the election results gave Obama a clear win. Here is a list of those tweets Yahoo! News provided for us: Read more
Gen. David Petraeus’s sudden resignation as CIA director on Friday is shocking, but what is more shocking is how the GOP and the media is handling this issues. Not they are wondering if his resignation is apart of some sort of conspiracy to cover up for what happen in Benghazi, Libya since Gen. David Petraeus was to testify in the coming days. I find this laughable. For one while the GOP and the media was blaming the President for what happen in Benghazi. They never once put any blame on the CIA director (David Petraeus) for providing bad intelligence when the attack was classified as a protest gone violent. Where was there outrage at David Petraeus. His name was never even mentioned as a person who was part of the problem. Now, the GOP has a different angel. They think David Petraeus was forced out before he can tell the truth about Benghazi. The great White Knight. What a fantasy! Read more
I have been going back and forth on this question. And now that Taegan Goddard, author and former policy advisor has published the above screen shot of Mitt Romney's Presidential Transition Website. I think Mitt and his entire campaign did think they were winning/going to win. Now I know what you are thinking, of course they thought they were winning. What campaign thinks they are going to lose. Well John McCain recently said on Morning Joe that they knew weeks/days before the election in 2008 that they were going to lose. So yes, candidates and there campaigns are aware of their fate before the actual election. Read more
Mitt Romney will win the Popular Vote and the Electoral College
19% (10 votes)
Obama will win the Electoral College but lose the Popular Vote
10% (5 votes)
Mitt Romney will win the Electoral College but lose the Popular Vote
0% (0 votes)
Obama will win the Popular Vote and the Electoral College
71% (37 votes)
Total votes: 52
With "horses and bayonets" Mitt started a weak week, spending half the final debate getting trounced and half agreeing with the man doing the trouncing.
Then Murdouck made Mitt's week much worse, saying pregnancy from rape is what God's intended forcing Romney to decide if he defended the man he told Indiana to send to the Senate.
But $5 million brought the week to its worst -- offered by Mitt's own supporter, Donald Trump, who trumped Romney by mugging the media in a bigoted, foolish crusade to steal the spotlight.
Compared to what fellow GOPers have said, being mocked by the Prez was this week's high point
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I for one am glad that debate season is over and we can move on to the Election. We partisans, from both sides were hoping for a big win for our candidate but neither side got what they wanted. I am sure that some of my fellow Democrats will say otherwise, but former Governor Mitt Romney I think did fairly well. Still, he did that by riding the coattails of President Obama on several issues, such as our exit timeline in Afghanistan and dealing with Iran, as far as that country obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Mitt Romney repeated what has been a Republican talking point for a while now that President Obama went on an apology tour, shortly after taking office. This is not true in the least since the president never said he was sorry nor did he apologize. President Obama cleared that up when he said: Read more
Abraham Lincoln once said, “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” Well, in November of 2002 the people of Massachusetts gave a businessman named Mitt Romney political power. And, of course, Mr. Romney is now seeking even greater political power, truly awesome power, power that provides, as Abraham Lincoln found out, an awesome test of a man’s (or possibly someday a woman’s) character. (Indeed, by many accounts Mr. Romney began his quest for the presidency about halfway through his term as governor of Massachusetts, or 8 years ago.) Read more
The supporters of Barack Obama and most members of the Democratic Party want our president to lay Mitt Romney out — not literally speaking of course. Most of us I am sure agree that his last performance was a little lackadaisical, even us die-hard Obama fans thought so, which I am.
I would simply like to see this debate be more about character, so viewers can understand what really is behind that smile and that look of concern on Romney’s face. It is a shame that so many voters seem not to understand who Mitt Romney really is, but this debate will give President Obama a chance to do just that.
As far as the president’s character, we all have witnessed that over the last four years and we all can make our own assessment about that at the polls. Mitt Romney on the other hand, people are just now really getting to know him and they have only seen what was well prepared beforehand. Now it is time to reveal the real Mitt Romney. Read more
America has become such a divided nation. Is it because we have unresolvable differences or is it because we have allowed the voices of unreason and prejudice, to overpower the voices of wisdom and truth?
President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney are two very different men and they have two very different plans for America. One wants to continue on the same path that has led us down a road of slow but steady growth, and the other wants to cut all our taxes by 20 percent but gives no real details on how he would pay for it, or who would pay for it. Read more