In the weeks leading up to the 2012 Presidential election it was nearly impossible to not hear the name Nate Silver. His projections of the election came to dominate the news cycle and he himself became the subject of the media zeitgeist. Silver was either lambasted as a charlatan by those who disagreed with his lean towards an Obama win; or he was heralded as a genius by liberals whose fear of a Romney victory he assuaged. This backdrop was the perfect setting to be reading Silver’s first book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t. The narrative in the book described a far different world of projection and probabilistic thinking then what was occurring in the media in the lead up to the election. Read more
As many might remember in July of this year we released the results of our presidential electoral model to predict the results of the 2012 election. As opposed to many predictive models out there (Nate Silver's 538 blog being the best known) that rely on publicly available data up to the day of the election, our model is based mainly on past results and demographic changes in the country. We do not use any polling or factor in who the candidates are.
The model not only performed exceptionally well in predicting the national support Obama would receive (only 1/10 of a point off), but we also predicted the state that would put Obama over the 270 threshold (Colorado). Additionally, when looking at the state by state results, the model was only off by an average of 2.3 percent across all 50 states. However, in the 10 swing states it was only off by .8 percent. 538 was off by .7 percent in the same 10 states. Additionally we were closer to predicting the results in 5 of the 10 states, while 538 was closer on 4 and we tied on one. Read more
As a gay man and one of America’s many minorities, I have seen what popular opinion has done to our nation, as far as allowing racism and bigotry in our laws and in our hearts. I also know that if it were not for the judicial system in this country, many of civil rights would not exist for many minorities.
Three justices from the Iowa Supreme Court were ousted in the Election of 2010 because they interpreted a violation to the state’s constitution, restricting marriage to just one man and one woman. It did not matter that it was a 7-0 ruling; just that it angered some conservative groups who went on a crusade to bring them down. Read more
The Obama campaign has its third variation of campaign spots about Mitt Romney's 47 percent comments, in a spot that wasn't announced but uses the entire audio from the fundraiser. And that's all for the words spoken.
We all have a good idea of what a second term for President Barack Obama would be like; Possibilities of overturning the Defense of Marriage Act and a new look at the Dream Act that he attempted to get passed earlier in his term. I have faith that not only will those things get passed through his second term but before he leaves office in 2017 this country will be on the road to prosperity for decades to come. Read more
Though the entertainment value is very high, watching the back and forth between former Massachusetts Mitt Romney and former U.S. House of Representative Newt Gingrich, is only entertainment. Read more
The upcoming Republican primary in South Carolina which former Governor Mitt Romney is leading in the polls, may well help send this man on to be the Republican nominee to face off with President O Read more