As many might remember in July of this year we released the results of our presidential electoral model to predict the results of the 2012 election. As opposed to many predictive models out there (Nate Silver's 538 blog being the best known) that rely on publicly available data up to the day of the election, our model is based mainly on past results and demographic changes in the country. We do not use any polling or factor in who the candidates are.
The model not only performed exceptionally well in predicting the national support Obama would receive (only 1/10 of a point off), but we also predicted the state that would put Obama over the 270 threshold (Colorado). Additionally, when looking at the state by state results, the model was only off by an average of 2.3 percent across all 50 states. However, in the 10 swing states it was only off by .8 percent. 538 was off by .7 percent in the same 10 states. Additionally we were closer to predicting the results in 5 of the 10 states, while 538 was closer on 4 and we tied on one. Read more
Losing an election can be a very bitter pill to swallow. Some Republicans are refusing to accept their loss and instead have begun beating the war drums of vengeance, promising to fight against not only the election results, but against democracy itself and the will of the People.
Donald Trump is a good example, he tweeted a few incendiary comments after the election results gave Obama a clear win. Here is a list of those tweets Yahoo! News provided for us: Read more
I have been going back and forth on this question. And now that Taegan Goddard, author and former policy advisor has published the above screen shot of Mitt Romney's Presidential Transition Website. I think Mitt and his entire campaign did think they were winning/going to win. Now I know what you are thinking, of course they thought they were winning. What campaign thinks they are going to lose. Well John McCain recently said on Morning Joe that they knew weeks/days before the election in 2008 that they were going to lose. So yes, candidates and there campaigns are aware of their fate before the actual election. Read more
As a gay man and one of America’s many minorities, I have seen what popular opinion has done to our nation, as far as allowing racism and bigotry in our laws and in our hearts. I also know that if it were not for the judicial system in this country, many of civil rights would not exist for many minorities.
Three justices from the Iowa Supreme Court were ousted in the Election of 2010 because they interpreted a violation to the state’s constitution, restricting marriage to just one man and one woman. It did not matter that it was a 7-0 ruling; just that it angered some conservative groups who went on a crusade to bring them down. Read more
The Obama campaign has its third variation of campaign spots about Mitt Romney's 47 percent comments, in a spot that wasn't announced but uses the entire audio from the fundraiser. And that's all for the words spoken.
Mitt Romney has step in a giant mess (47% of the country is upset….hahahaha!) and right now he seems to not have a good plan to get out of the mess he created. So the strategy for Mr. Romney is pretty clear. Try to change the subject as fast as you can. For Obama, I think the strategy is pretty clear as well. FINISH HIM! Read more
When Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan as his potential vice president it led to a rare moment in American politics because it seemed to please both parties. The republicans were understandably excited to see a passionate and ‘intellectual’ fiscal conservative on the ticket to eclipse the embarrassing political inconsistencies of their candidate and democrats were relieved for the same reason. Read more
With public relations of any kind, words can carry great weight to influence positive or negative reactions out of people; presidential campaigns are no different. Putting the right “spin” on whatever a presidential candidate’s position is, can be very critical in winning the majority’s approval or disapproval.
Any election rides on what I call a “war of words” between any two rival candidates, though those words are expressed through political ads or by speeches on the campaign trail. The winner of any “war on words” wins the election. Read more
We all have a good idea of what a second term for President Barack Obama would be like; Possibilities of overturning the Defense of Marriage Act and a new look at the Dream Act that he attempted to get passed earlier in his term. I have faith that not only will those things get passed through his second term but before he leaves office in 2017 this country will be on the road to prosperity for decades to come. Read more